Open and uncertain: Germany’s 2021 election
As Germans go to the polls this weekend, the race is coming down to the wire. This is no normal election for the country – with Angela Merkel out of the picture, this is the first time since 1949 that an incumbent Chancellor is not running for office, and Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is experiencing a mass exodus towards the centre-left since that it hasn’t seen since the 1960s.
It may be the most open and uncertain election in recent memory for Germany, with the polls shifting between three main parties: the centre right Christian Democratic Union led by Armin Laschet, the Greens led by Annalen Baerbock, and Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party. However, if we believe the polls, Germans are voting for less of the same.
After 16 years, The CDU and the CSU, its sister party, are facing up to the possibility that come Sunday night, the Social Democrats (SPD) could be the biggest party in parliament for the first time. In a recent poll from POLITICO, SPD is leading at 26%, with the CDU and Greens behind at 21% and 16% respectively.
Big issues in the Bundestag
Whether you’re German or not, the direction of travel of the world’s fourth-largest economy matters. Unsurprisingly the big issues on the table are Germany’s economic recovery post-pandemic, and its climate policies, which have become significantly more urgent after the summer floods. The outgoing government has committed Germany to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045, but the Greens want to meet that target sooner and engineer an earlier exit from coal.
On the economy, the CDU and classically liberal party FDP reject future tax rises, with the later promising far-reaching cuts. Comparatively, the SPD and the Greens say they want to offer tax relief to small businesses but also re-introduce a wealth tax of about 1% for high earners. Marking a sharp break from ‘Merkelism’, SPD promises to make housing more affordable and to raise the minimum wage to €12 from €9.60 an hour.
Looking to foreign policy, the conservatives and the Social Democrats are unlikely to deviate from Merkel’s ‘change through trade’ approach to Russia and China. While all parties baring the AfD are committed to the union, Greens want to pursue and ambitious revival of the European project, with tougher action on members that fail to uphold democratic principles.
Personality trumping policy?
Campaign gaffes, strategic errors and collective mudslinging – the hallmarks of a general election. From Armin Laschet being filmed laughing at a ceremony commemorating victims of flooding, to Annalena Baerbock being caught out for embellishing her CV, to Olaf Scholz who has found himself in the hot seat for his record as a finance minister, no candidate has escaped controversy.
The election has been governed by feeling from the outset and this has made for a volatile and temperamental election run. Annalena Baerbock of the Greens began with a halo around her – a pragmatic, centrist force that performed well in state and European elections and for a short time was tipped to be next chancellor. However, her popularity quickly faded with a series of setbacks that brought her character into question, and gaff-prone Armin Laschet equally slipped down the polls with her. Today the initial frontrunners of the election are (according to the polls) the election stragglers on what appears to be grounds of personality not policy.
On the other hand, Olaf Scholz with the catchy slogan ‘Scholz will sort it’, has become the surprise and slightly late frontrunner. Defying sceptics who predicted his lead would start to evaporate once voters scrutinised his policies, he was voted the victor in the final debate last week – winning people over with a statesman-like authority that could rival Merkel.
The coalition conundrum
With the three largest parties wavering around the 20% mark, gauging the likely coalition options has become more complex than ever. When voters go to the polls on Sunday 26th, it is unlikely there will be a government by tea time – the fact that SPD is at the top of the polls is not a sign of its overwhelming popularity but the fragmentary reality of the German political landscape. As voting loyalties are splintered across six groups, a majority government will probably have to be the result of a tripartite coalition.
Forming a coalition government can be a painful, months long process, and they can call into question how much Germany’s political agenda can and will change. Even if SPD maintains its lead and the Greens join forces, will a likely three-party coalition hamper changes for a bold new agenda in a post-Merkel world? We will wait and see.