Boxnote: House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee Report on Ukraine
Audley summarises the recent report from the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee, ‘Ukraine: a wake-up call’, which provides a reminder of the dangers posed to the UK by outdated assumptions in defence policy.
Summary
The first report by the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee entitled Ukraine: a wake-up call argues that the war in Ukraine provides a sobering reminder of the dangers posed by complacency and outdated assumptions in defence policy. It highlights the urgent need for the UK to integrate the lessons learned from the conflict, and discusses why the UK and Europe must re-establish a credible deterrence posture towards Putin’s Russia. The report adds these efforts are severely constrained by the UK’s armed forces lacking the necessary mass, resilience and internal coherence to maintain an effective deterrence. The report argues that the UK government must commit to spending more on defence and spending better. The ongoing Strategic Defence Review provides a timely opportunity to incorporate these lessons.
Summary of findings
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine represents a failure of NATO’s deterrent posture towards Russia. Although the invasion may yet prove to be a strategic miscalculation, Putin’s assessment was that NATO’s response would not represent a credible threat to his ambition. This collective failure by the West calls for a clear-eyed examination of why our policy of deterrence was unsuccessful and a systematic re-assessment of the assumptions that underpinned it.
The invasion has exposed fundamental weaknesses in both the UK’s and NATO’s military strength. Within the UK, it has raised serious questions regarding the preparedness of Government, society and the defence industrial base to support conventional warfighting at scale. Britain is underprepared to respond to the heightened global threat environment and meet the growing threat from Russia. More specifically, the UK’s armed forces lack the mass, resilience, and internal coherence necessary to maintain a deterrent effect and respond effectively to prolonged and high-intensity warfare.
Russia has been attacking Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure to inflict physical and psychological damage—both through hybrid and conventional means. The UK is not insulated from these threats and has been an attractive target for Russian cyber and electronic attacks. However, the dismantling of mechanisms for mobilisation and for protecting the UK’s civil defence infrastructure after the Cold War has left the country vulnerable. There is an urgent need for a government-wide effort to build resilience and better protect the UK’s critical national infrastructure.
The war has underscored the need for an agile industrial base to meet the demands of a dynamic battlefield and underpin the credibility of the UK’s armed forces. However, the UK’s procurement methods remain cumbersome and lack the agility required to keep pace with the rapidly evolving nature of modern warfare, particularly in cases where conflict is between states which are technologically evenly matched. The Government must transform its approach to procurement to keep pace with accelerating development cycles.
Defence is not just about physical capabilities, it is also about resilience and the psychological readiness of the nation. Engaging the broader society in defence is crucial. This can be achieved by integrating civilian capabilities, fostering community engagement, breaking down barriers between the public and the military and addressing the emotional aspects of national defence. Currently, the public’s awareness of the true state of the UK’s defence posture is alarmingly low. The mindset of a nation under genuine threat is absent, and there is an urgent need to invest in shaping how people perceive the value of defence. The Government must develop a compelling value proposition that resonates with citizens, emphasizing the importance of national security in their daily lives and moving beyond the notion that defence is solely the military’s responsibility. The Government can learn valuable lessons from other nations, such as the Scandinavian concept of “total defence”.
The war in Ukraine has thrown the role of alliances at a time of war into the spotlight. Russia is attempting to offset its decline in relations with the West by developing closer ties with China, Iran, North Korea and key Global South countries, especially in Africa. We should be deeply concerned by this development and be more proactive in building relationships with those countries in the Global South where Russia (and others) are seeking to extend their influence. The UK should harness its respected soft power as a diplomatic force and international development actor in support of alliance building.
The UK’s security is closely tied in with Europe’s security. As the US refocuses its priorities towards the Indo-Pacific, the need for engagement with Europe and the EU becomes even more pressing. The report welcomes the new Government’s commitment to negotiate a security pact with the EU, which has the potential to deliver improved collaboration with our European partners.
Overarching Conclusions
The war in Ukraine is a wake-up call to the UK’s relative decline as a full-spectrum military power. In truth, the UK is a medium-sized regional power, but its commitment to retaining global influence, particularly through nuclear and maritime capabilities, makes some of its other military aspirations unaffordable.
The UK now lacks a coherent model to augment its relatively small armed forces with the capabilities needed to sustain or deter warfighting. Such a comprehensive model should be a key aspiration of the Strategic Defence Review and will undoubtedly rest on an ability to better leverage technology, industry, the Reserves, allies and wider society.
The war in Ukraine has provided a sobering reminder of the dangers posed by complacency and outdated assumptions in defence policy. Governments have, so far, lacked an honest narrative about Defence’s ambition, resources, threats and risk. The new Government must ensure that its response to the Strategic Defence Review clearly outlines its priorities for UK Defence and provides a realistic roadmap for turning aspirations into reality.
The UK must commit to spending more on defence, spending it better, and leveraging its alliances by design. If clearer priorities are set, there is a real opportunity for the UK to build a more resilient and capable armed forces and, as a result, better protect the UK and play a more influential role in strengthening NATO, ensuring the collective security of its member states.