Why, whatever happens next week, Trump won’t ‘lose’
Nearly four years ago in January 2017, the UK delegation was the first through the doors of the new Trump White House. Just one week after the President’s inauguration, Prime Minister Theresa May was hosted in the Oval Office before a sit-down lunch with the new President and his team.
I was fortunate enough to be part of that delegation and to get an early glimpse of the Trump presidency from the inside. Much of what sticks in my head from that visit shall remain unspoken – at least until President Trump has left the White House for the last time – but as we contemplate next week’s election one moment in particular stands out.
The President and Prime Minister conducted a joint press conference in the East Wing before a small number of us convened upstairs for a formal lunch. As the President walked around the table to take his seat, he reflected on the press conference that had just taken place. ‘So who do you think won that then Theresa?’ he asked.
I’ve often reflected on this comment in the years since as I think it reveals so much about Donald Trump’s view of the world. That view is very binary – you are either a winner or a loser – and to fall into the latter camp is the worst sin of all.
It’s why, as we approach next week’s US election, I’m convinced that whatever happens Donald Trump won’t ‘lose’. He may not get the most votes and may no longer be the President after January. Indeed, the Biden camp are very confident as they move into the final week of the campaign, believing the crucial constituency of ‘suburban women’ to be breaking heavily in their favour. Yet if Donald Trump is ejected from the White House, it is sure in his mind to be down to any range of forces working against him. The media, the electoral process, the so-called ‘Deep State’. Anything that can deflect attention from – and justify – the President’s own failure to win his much-coveted second term.
This, then, poses a problem for the US and for the Republican Party in particular. Will the Grand Old Party double-down on that narrative, or accept defeat, reflect clearly on what went wrong and think deeply about how to do better next time? In the first scenario, the US could descend into a period of further division and recrimination. In the latter, a period of stability – and what Joe Biden refers to as ‘healing’ – could ensue.
The early signs are not positive. At this year’s Republican Convention, for the first time, the Party failed to offer up a policy platform – deciding instead that their policies would be whatever Donald Trump wanted them to be. That’s symbolic of the extent to which Trump and his MAGA-Republicans have taken over the structures of the Republican Party. Yet things can change quickly in politics. There are plenty of Republicans who have kept their counsel while Trump was winning and who may yet be willing to raise their heads above the parapet should that winning streak come to an end.
If, as the polls suggest, Joe Biden goes on to take the Presidency next week, watching the way the Republican Party jumps next will be one of the most interesting aspects of American politics in the months ahead. As our own history in the UK suggests, political parties that face up to the reasons for electoral defeat and change accordingly can transform their fortunes relatively quickly. Those that don’t – that effectively argue the problem is not with them but with the voters – tend to languish in irrelevance.
We’re days away from one US election, but the seeds of the 2024 result may well be sown in the days ahead and in the decision the Republican Party makes should ‘sleepy Joe’ win the day.
Written by Chris Wilkins, Managing Partner at Audley