Rishi Sunak gambles on being the continuity candidate
Chris Wilkins, Audley's CEO and Former Director of Strategy at No 10, argues that opting for continuity over change could be a necessary political gamble for the new Prime Minister.
When it comes to elections, the most powerful argument for any party of opposition is ‘it’s time for a change’. That’s even more true when the governing party has been in power for years and the public start to feel they’ve run out of steam. It’s why as his popularity waned in the light of the Iraq war, Tony Blair felt he needed to challenge his party to “do something that Labour Governments have never succeeded in before - to renew in power”.
This challenge of ‘renewing in power’ is why almost all prime ministers who take office mid-term and without a general election try desperately to distinguish themselves from their predecessors.
Theresa May set out to differentiate herself from David Cameron when she took office in 2016, by seeking to move beyond the years of austerity and embracing what she called ‘the good that government can do’. Boris Johnson talked of a ‘new government’ when he took the reins three years later. And perhaps most (in)famously, Liz Truss embarked upon a bold new course when she began her ill-fated premiership after Johnson’s conduct and evasions saw his own time in charge washed away.
Each one sought to ‘be the change’ in order to neutralise the Labour Party’s key election message. So, it is striking to see Rishi Sunak adopt a different tack – positioning himself as the continuity candidate: the latest custodian of a Conservative government that has now been in power since 2010.
It is an approach that has been forced upon him by circumstance. In his failed leadership campaign earlier this year, he promised youthful idealism and hope, served up with slick social media videos and flashy branding. Today, he recognises that the times call for something much more sober. Slickness has been replaced by sombre stability. Grown-up, sensible government is the order of the day.
This is why the Cabinet he constructed on Tuesday evening features so many experienced ministers and familiar faces – veterans of the Johnson, May – even Cameron – years. It’s why in his first outing at prime minister’s questions, he talked regularly of the actions of ‘this government’: claiming as his own some of the achievements secured since the huge election victory of December 2019. It’s why, to be frank, it all feels a little underwhelming. This is a prime minister who doesn’t want to frighten the horses (or rather the markets). He’s here to tell the public that, though things may get a bit tough in the months ahead, there’s no need to worry. Everything’s going to be ok.
It's the right thing to do for the country. After the turmoil of the brief Truss premiership, a bit of boring stability may be welcome. The markets seem to have settled – so much so that the prime minister and chancellor feel confident in pushing the publication of the fiscal plan back by three weeks. And it might well be welcomed by a public exhausted by recent events and seized by anxiety as the cost of living goes up. But does it leave the door open for Keir Starmer and Labour? After 12 years of the Tories in power, it’s easy for them to argue that it’s ‘time for a change’.
The truth is, the prime minister has few good options and has chosen the one that prioritises party unity and political stability. But change is a powerful driver when it comes to politics.
“There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics”, Labour PM James Callaghan said on the eve of the 1979 general election. “It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of”.
Callaghan suspected then that such a sea-change had occurred and it had found in favour of Mrs Thatcher. Mr Sunak’s best hope is that the turmoil caused by an unstable and uncertain world leaves people searching for stability, security and familiarity instead.
By Chris Wilkins, CEO at Audley and Former Director of Strategy at No10.
Image credit/Crown Copyright