Weekend Box: NATO Summit, Recession fears & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business, and cultural news from around the world.
NATO: TO SUMMIT ALL UP…
This week, the 2022 NATO Madrid summit took place; the first summit of NATO held since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove the agenda. Going into the summit, there were questions over what the strategy around Russia should be and whether Finland and Sweden would be invited to join along with recurring themes around the usual suspects of climate change, technology and how to handle China.
On Russia, NATO reinforced the messaging that has been a consistent marker of their narrative over the past few months; as long as Russian conflict remains on non-NATO territory, NATO “does not seek confrontation and poses no threat” to Russia.
Of course, given Putin’s constant paranoia about NATO, this messaging was necessary; however, leaders were quick to note their support for Ukraine and that an attack on members’ territory was most certainly not out of the realms of possibility given the way the war has progressed.
Whilst the “we don’t pose a threat” message continued, the alliance did pledge to strengthen “combat-ready forces”, in particular along the eastern flank near Russia, with troops set to increase to a huge 300,000 from the current 40,000. They also pledged to deliver a much-needed Comprehensive Assistance Package to Ukraine which would include secure communications, fuel, medical supplies, and body armour as well as equipment to counter mines, chemical and biological threats and portable anti-drone systems.
Bolstering strength came too from the addition of the Nordic nations to the alliance. Finland and Sweden were officially invited to join after Turkey dropped its veto of the duo following four hours of talks before the start of the summit. The talks resulted in a deal that saw Sweden and Finland pledge to co-operate with Turkey on its fight against the PKK and its affiliates as well as end the weapons embargo on Turkey.
Importantly, NATO announced it had published a new Strategic Concept, to replace that from 2010. In it, they note that Russia is the “most significant and direct threat” to security, and that China’s coercive policies “challenge [NATO’s] interests, securities and values”, both statements in stark contrast to the 2010 concept in which Russia was mentioned as a strategic partner and China was not mentioned at all. Finally, and for the first time, climate change was officially recognised as a key security challenge for NATO over the coming years.
All in all, a monumental and sobering summit, that showed the criticality of uniting as an alliance to tackle and overcome some of the pressing challenges that face not only the security of the 30 member nations, but the entire globe. These concerns, amongst others, will form the core of the Atlantic Future Forum, which shall take place in New York on the Royal Navy’s aircraft carrier HMS PRINCE OF WALES on September 28th-29th. To find out more about the event, which Audley is co-organising, click here.
SEA OF RED
Recession fears submerged stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic in a sea of red this week, ending a tumultuous half year for investors.
Whilst Londoners have enjoyed rare days of sunshine this week, the forecast was bleak for the city’s FTSE 100, home to Britain’s top moneymaking juggernauts. On Thursday, London’s blue-chip stocks plummeted 143.04 points, or 2%, to 7,169.28, as investors' fears over the ever-possible ramifications of surging inflation, higher rates, and economic inertia reached boiling point. This put last month’s losses at 5.7%, the most substantial drop since March 2020, when Covid-19 sparked a wave of market sell-offs.
Stocks in housebuilding companies were amongst the hardest hit. Their fall from grace comes after Nationwide building society reported that annual house price gains have slowed for the third month in a row as the enfeebled economy, tightened purse strings, and rising interest rates have begun to take their toll on the property market. Barratt Developments shed 25p, or 5.2%, to 451¾p; Berkeley Group lost 176p, or 4.7%, to £35.99; and Persimmon fell 96½p, or 5%, to £18.18½.
Meanwhile, the bloc’s stock indices fell sharply. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was 1.5% lower on Thursday, marking a 17% reduction this year and its biggest fall since Covid struck.
Over 3,000 miles away in New York, US stocks also recorded depressing results. The S&P 500, the stock market index tracing the stock performance of the US’s 500 largest listed companies, fell by 0.9% on Thursday. This left the blue-chip index down by 20.6% in the first half of 2022. Wall Street equities have not suffered an onerous start to the year like this since 1970, when shares were sold off in reaction to a recession that put an end to the longest period of economic growth in American history.
Against the backdrop of battered global markets, the world’s top bankers at the European Central Bank Forum cautioned that the environment of moderate inflation is “gone now” due to the “massive geopolitical shock” from Putin’s war in Ukraine and Covid-19. Speaking at the conference, President Christine Lagarde, Chair of the Federal Reserve Jay Powell, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey called for fast action to prevent inflation from skyrocketing. They maintained that failing to raise interest rates quickly enough could mean that high inflation is here to stay, requiring central banks to take more dramatic action to pull price growth back to moderate levels.
ISRAEL: PM PRIMED FOR ELECTION BATTLE?
Spare a thought this weekend for Israeli politician Yair Lapid, who has waited ten years to become prime minister only to take on the job just as the ruling coalition fractures and another general election is called.
Mr Lapid is likely to hold the post over the summer before voters go to the polls in November for the fifth time in four years. His elevation is part of an unusual agreement, struck with his coalition partners after the latest inconclusive election last year, which saw Naftali Bennett of the New Right party become prime minister initially before handing over to Mr Lapid this week. Mr Bennett’s last act in the role was to dissolve the Knesset – Israel’s parliament – after the ruling coalition formed of eight diverse parties lost its already slim majority when a group of MPs withdrew their support.
The unusual coalition, which ranged across the political spectrum and included an Arab-led party as well as parties from the centre-right, was united largely in its opposition to former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu who ruled Israel between 2009-2021. However, despite continuing to be dogged by corruption charges, Mr Netanyahu is once again the early front runner in the opinion polls – holding out the prospect of a return to office and the all-important chance to secure immunity from prosecution.
While the upcoming Israeli election is likely to be dominated by domestic concerns, with, for example, Mr Netanyahu kicking off his campaign with a tour of a local market to highlight the impact of price inflation under the coalition government, it could well have much broader regional, and global, ramifications.
Only this week, in a highly symbolic moment, the UAE airline Emirates landed its inaugural flight in Tel Aviv as part of a new daily service between Israel and Dubai. Such an event, unthinkable just a few short years ago, signifies the thawing of relations between the traditional adversaries who are increasingly working together in opposition to their common enemy of Iran.
Meanwhile, talks over reviving the nuclear non-proliferation agreement with the Islamic Republic broke down in Doha this week, with Iranian and Western negotiators seemingly as far apart as ever. Such diplomatic developments and delicate regional relations will surely come under the spotlight during the course of another febrile election campaign in Israel. Mr Netanyahu in particular will likely seek to portray his opponent as weak on security – an argument that may play particularly well with many voters given Mr Lapid’s decision to welcome an Arab Islamist party into his coalition for the first time.
Mr Lapid’s time as prime minister might well turn out to be short-lived. But if Mr Netanyahu’s example teaches us anything, it’s that perhaps you get more than one chance to be the prime minister of Israel. At least the incumbent will get to enjoy a few big set-piece moments while he’s in the job. US President Joe Biden arrives for his first visit to the region since winning the White House later this month. It will be interesting to see how the occasionally gaffe-prone President navigates the sensitive political situation while he’s there...
WOMEN’S EURO 2022
The Women’s Euro 2022 kick off at Old Trafford next Wednesday, with 16 teams from across the continent competing for the title.
Whilst there is no difference in the outline of the game - the same number of players, the same pitch dimensions, the same length of match, the weight and shape of the ball - there are some key differences in how it is played: women score more goals, they follow instructions, and obey the rules (data shows that men are booked for twice as many fouls as women). The ball is kept in bounds for longer, much longer than in men’s football, and there are fewer dangerous tackles and less aggressive play.
So what can we expect?
Tipped as favourites by many, will it be coming home this summer for host nation England? Bookies’ favourites Spain, trophy holders Holland, and eight-time winners Germany will all see themselves as in the running. Consistent Olympic winners Sweden, France (will the experience of their players be trumped by disharmony in their ranks?), and the experienced Italian side will also be up for the challenge.
The Golden Boot is also likely to come from France’s Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who has over 100 career goals to her name at just 23; England’s Beth Meade, with more than 20 goals scored in the qualifying stages; and Ellen White, favourite among the England fans. Alexia Putellas of Spain is also currently ranked top player, so is not to be underestimated.
There will always be those that will argue that the women’s game will never match the men’s, but with the money becoming more serious and a focus on technical and tactical skills, the Euros provide a chance to see that the women’s game has a place in its own right. Just as in 2019 when widespread coverage of the FIFA Women's World Cup sparked football fever across the UK, every game will be shown live on BBC, giving us a great opportunity to see just how good the top level of the women’s game has become.
IN DEFENSE OF POETRY
Philip Larkin famously wrote in his poem ‘An Arundel Tomb’ that “What will survive of us is love”. Now many are questioning what will survive of the study of English Literature, after Sheffield Hallam University announced this week it would cease teaching the subject next year. It is feared that the University’s decision is an omen of the hastening end of the study of the arts and humanities in Britain.
Senior Lecturer Dr Mary Peace shared on Twitter that the course was being suspended in response to the government “no longer fund[ing] degrees where 60% students [sic] don’t end up in “highly skilled” jobs within 6 months.” The University will begin teaching an English course combining the study of literature with language and others from September 2023. Nonetheless, the suspension of English Literature has provoked an outcry from those who fear that Britain’s cultural life will erode from lack of opportunities to study the arts and humanities.
The news comes shortly after OCR announced its new GCSE poetry syllabus, which has also become a subject of controversy. The syllabus has been renewed to feature “more poems by contemporary and established poets of colour[,]” in the words of Lead Subject Advisor Keeley Nolan. Caleb Femi, Malika Booker, and Warsan Shire are among the 15 poets who have been added to the syllabus. OCR’s decision to remove revered poems including Larkin’s ‘Arundel Tomb’ and work by First World War poet Wilfred Owen has been negatively received by some, including Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi, who described these omissions “cultural vandalism.”
The decisions by both institutions have, for different reasons, led us to look again at the question of literature’s place in the modern world. By diversifying the GCSE poetry anthology, to ensure the voices featured reflect the diversity of our culture and society, OCR has solidified its place. The poets added to the syllabus have the potential to inspire a love of literature in students that may lead them to the work of Larkin and Owen, for them to make of it what they will. To allow the arts and humanities to decline, denying readers the chance to find work that speaks to them, perhaps because of shared background and experiences – in doing so, denying them the chance to develop a passion that will lead them to new discoveries – would be the greater act of cultural vandalism.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audley.uk.com.
For now, that’s the weekend box officially closed.