Weekend Box: Thailand Moves Forward, No Walk in the (Center) Parcs & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
THAILAND MOVES FORWARD WITH PITA
Three years after the dissolution of his former party and the youth-led protest movements that followed, Thailand’s Pita Limjaroenrat believes he could form a government to end his country’s military-backed rule and start a new chapter in its history.
The 42-year-old Harvard Graduate’s party Move Forward were the decisive victors of Sunday’s general elections in Thailand, claiming more votes than any other party in a blow to rivals Pheu Thai, the country’s second-largest party, and leader of the 2014 coup Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Rising from the ashes of the former party Future Forward, and sharing its democratic ideal, Move Forward captured 14.2m votes through promises of “fully democratic” reforms that represent clean breaks from the past: ending the military’s influence in Thailand’s political establishment as well as mandatory conscription, breaking up the monopolies that dominate the economy, and reforming the lèse-majesté law that imprisons anyone who would criticise the monarchy (currently King Vajiralongkorn).
While only a young party, Move Forward has been buoyed by the waves of pro-democracy sentiment following the country’s 2020 anti-government protests, instigated in part by the dissolution of the Future Forward Party by former-Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s government, a move widely perceived as undemocratic.
At the time, the protesters found solidarity as part of the so-called ‘Milk Tea Alliance’, a network of young people in Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Myanmar rebelling against the establishments in each of their home countries. While Thailand’s protests divided public opinion at the time between its youth and those loyal to the establishment and its traditions, Move Forward’s success three years later suggests the country is more than ready for change.
Pita Limjaroenrat is confident his party will be able to form a coalition with Pheu Thai to secure enough seats in parliament, and that the momentum behind them means the military-appointed Senate will not stand in the way of Thailand’s democratic future.
Image credit: Wikicommons/Diana2803
ARGENTINA: CASH AND BURN
Argentina is on the brink of an economic crisis and testing the limits of monetary measures to arrest it. On Monday its government raised interest rates to 97% to try to stave off a currency collapse, ahead of elections in October.
Argentina has long suffered from runaway inflation. Prices have risen by 32% so far this year and by 108.8% in the year to April, its highest level since 1991. The devaluation risk is twinned with dwindling foreign currency reserves, as Argentinians increasingly abandon the free-falling peso and turn to US dollars instead.
In a series of other crisis measures, Economy Minister Sergio Massa has tried to persuade the IMF to bring forward agreed loans ($44bn and counting) and travels to China later this month to seek greater use of the Chinese renminbi in foreign trade. Argentina has already activated a currency swap with China, paying for some $1bn worth of imports in renminbi. Massa also plans to allow food imports at zero tariff, a first for this net food exporter, while lowering interest rates on a state-sponsored scheme to buy locally made products on credit.
These interventionist measures are seen by many to be doubling down on previous foreign exchange and price controls that have often created distortions that have deterred investment and depressed production.
As Argentinians see their purchasing power evaporate, thousands demonstrated on Wednesday in a ‘Marcha Federal’ in Buenos Aires, calling for jobs, better wages, and the stepping up of efforts to tackle hunger and poverty. The poverty rate stood at 39% last year and UNICEF categorises 66% of children as poor or deprived of basic rights in the country.
While the Peronist government flounders, emerging contenders for the Autumn election now include Javier Milei, a far-right populist with an anti-establishment platform that includes abolishing the central bank and dollarizing the economy. Most discount this idea, but desperate times are prompting calls for desperate measures.
READ ALL ABOUT IT! ENGLAND BEST IN THE WEST
According to the latest Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), children in England have been found to be the best readers in the Western world. England has now shot up the rankings to fourth for primary reading proficiency among nine and 10-year-olds, with Singapore, Hong Kong, and Russia taking the top spots.
The PIRLS rankings are typically regarded as the international benchmark for primary reading capability and are usually carried out every five years. While other countries’ performance fell back during the pandemic, the UK’s score of 558 has remained stable since the last round of assessments and is well above the international average of 520 and the European average of 524. While there was a small drop in reading scores among girls, Schools Minister Nick Gibb said this was minimal in the context of the overall scores.
The Government has credited this ranking with the focus schools in England have on phonics, which help children read using sounds. This was prompted by the influential Rose Review in 2006 which recommended that ‘high-quality systematic phonics’ should be at the core of England’s approach to reading. Since 2010, Nick Gibb has relentlessly championed this policy, with measures such as the Phonics Screening Check that was brought in in 2012 to ensure every six-year-old is on track with their reading.
However, this is a policy that has not always been endorsed. Teachers who are in favour of more progressive teaching methods argue that this hyper-focus on the traditional phonics-led approach takes the joy out of reading. However, with the Prime Minister’s focus on driving literacy rates and the validation of the PIRLS rankings, this policy is going nowhere anytime soon.
Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons/ Nancy Wong
EAST IS EAST
Writing a history of a period within living memory can be a risky endeavour. This is something that historian Katja Hoyer, who published her new history of the German Democratic Republic this month, has discovered.
Hoyer’s book charts the rise and fall of East Germany, known officially as the DDR, the authoritarian socialist state that emerged from the part of Germany occupied by the Soviets after the Second World War. It tries to show a more nuanced view of the DDR that goes beyond Stasi surveillance, political repression and the Berlin Wall. She points out that during the state’s 41 years of existence, many people led ordinary, if mundane and limited, lives. It adds to a growing trend of modern history which focuses less on high politics and more on the experience of the man in the street.
Beyond the Wall is in no way an apology for the GDR, but that hasn’t stopped Hoyer from being censured for writing it. A review in Süddeutsche Zeitung said that she was guilty of peddling misguided East German nostalgia and that her view is overly coloured by the favourable treatment of her parents by the regime. Another historian and critic said, “if a book like this about the Nazi period came out, there would be an outcry.”
This new history is timely. Politics in the former East Germany is tending towards the extremer edges of left and right. In Saxony and Brandenburg, the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland party is leading the polls. In Thuringia, the avowedly socialist Die Linke is the governing party at state level.
Katya Hoyer argues that a better appreciation of life within the GDR and its legacy is the first step to understanding the state of the former East Germany today and addressing division. Political and social acrimony in Europe’s biggest economy is something we could do well without.
Image credit/Poudou99 / aka Kootshisme
NO WALK IN THE (CENTER) PARCS
In what is potentially one of the biggest deals of the year, Canadian asset manager Brookfield has put Center Parcs’ UK and Ireland operations up for sale. The deal, for which the firm is reportedly seeking £4-5bn, includes the much-loved holiday company’s five UK sites and one Irish location.
Brookfield’s timing might prove risky as property prices fall in the UK and interest rates continue to rise. The economic outlook and rising cost of debt has slowed global M&A activity generally this year, with deals between European PE firms at their lowest levels in Q1.
However, in recent years the staycation sector has proven attractive for investors, with first the pandemic and now the cost of living crisis pushing holidaymakers to opt for more affordable options. While deal making across real estate has fallen in line with the general market trend, hotel deals struck in Europe increased to €4.3bn in the first quarter, according to real estate advisers Cushman & Wakefield. It was one of the only property sectors to see more deal volume than in the same months for 2022.
Potential buyers remain unclear, although are said to include other PE firms. If the sale goes ahead, Brookfield looks to double its money in 8 years, having acquired the resort group from Blackstone for about £2.4bn in 2015 (who paid £205m to take it private nine years earlier). Not a bad showing by any stretch, but probably not as good as they had hoped: during their ownership Covid left rooms empty for months, while environmental objections put an end to a proposed new park in West Sussex. It remains to be seen whether Center Parcs’ next owner can expand the much-loved brand more rapidly and scale even further.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.