Weekend Box: Berlus-goni, techtonics & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Niccolò Caranti
BERLUS-GONI
A name that has become synonymous with Italian politics, the billionaire-turned-politician Silvio Berlusconi died this week. While a divisive figure both at home and abroad, the profound impact the three-time prime minister had on Italy is indisputable.
Arguably a father of modern-day populist nationalism, he unapologetically weaponised the media and pushed an “Italy First" agenda that won both fans and detractors. On Wednesday, thousands gathered in Milan's main square for his state funeral to pay their respects. Many waved Italian flags with Forza Italia – the name of the party he founded in 1994 – and chanted "Silvio will always be our president."
Even beyond the grave Berlusconi is making political waves and now the real question is what his death will mean for the future of his party. In September, much to Berlusconi’s dismay, the party went into coalition with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and Matteo Salvini's Northern League party. For the past few months, he questioned Meloni’s ability to lead and was a source of both conflict and embarrassment for her.
While Forza Italia has significant representation in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, recent polling has given it just 7.3% of the vote (despite a small sympathy boost upon Berlusconi’s death). The party has been shaped around the late Prime Minister’s gargantuan persona and his supporter base, and there are worries it could fragment in his absence. Clearly one for melodrama, Gianfranco Miccichè, who served as a minister in one of his governments, declared “as of today. Forza Italia no longer exists.” Any disintegration of the party could also spell trouble for Meloni. She needs the party’s 17 senators to shore up her coalition government’s majority and she risks losing them to the opposition.
Forza Italia’s future is now in the hands of its next leader and the country may see a real-life Succession drama, with Berlusconi’s partner and his two eldest children potentially vying for the position. Either way, Italy’s greatest showman will be a hard act to follow.
BEIRUT-LESS
While UK politics has spent the week obsessing about the temper tantrums of a former prime minister and his eccentric band of political allies, other nations have been facing up to real, grown-up political crises.
Take Lebanon for example. The fragile state continues to be without an effective government while facing what has been described as one of the worst economic crises the world has seen in modern times.
The situation worsened this week as Lebanese lawmakers failed for the 12th time to elect a new president who might unlock the bureaucratic sclerosis. The leading candidate, IMF official Jihad Azour, fell 27 votes short of the 86 needed to secure the post, with the powerful Shi’ite group Hezbollah refusing to endorse his candidacy. Their own preferred candidate polled even fewer votes and the resulting stalemate means no one is sure where this latest political crisis will go next.
But what we do know is that Lebanon’s problems rarely confine themselves to the small nation on the shores of the Mediterranean. Lebanon, for example, is home to the world’s largest refugee population per capita, and many in Europe and elsewhere fear the onset of a new migration crisis, with all the destabilising impact that can have on politics in other countries.
Lebanon is certainly a country on the brink. Since the economic meltdown began in 2019, the currency has lost more than 90% of its value, the energy grid has collapsed and the World Food Programme estimates nearly half of households struggle to access food or basic goods. Meanwhile, the central bank governor is subject to an Interpol arrest warrant and the caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, says the government won’t be able to pay salaries at the end of the month.
All of which makes a tantrum about a lack of ermine seem something of a first world problem.
TECHTONICS
This week London Tech week returned for its tenth year, bringing together industry experts, entrepreneurs and the capital’s most promising startups. Of course, it was also an opportunity for the Prime Minister and a gaggle of top ministers to charm industry and pitch the UK as an ‘island of innovation’.
But as Audley found in its roundtable with Darren Jones, Labour MP and Chair of the Business Select Committee, there is some way to go before the UK can rival the likes of the US on the global stage. The ‘tectonic plates of tech’, as Sunak described it in his keynote, are unlikely to shift in our favour unless we take determined steps to address the regulatory and cultural issues that can put off some international investors and deter British businesses from staying British.
However, when it comes to cryptocurrency, it seems the UK is doing something right. Much to the delight of the Prime Minister, Andreessen Horowitz, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm that backed leading tech companies from Airbnb to Coinbase, has announced that it is opening its first office outside the US in London. It also plans to launch its first crypto startup school in the U.K. in a bid to identify future talent in the crypto and Web3 space.
As Audley Director Rolf Merchant wrote in CapX last month, the mood music is changing when it comes to crypto in the UK. With the US cracking down on the industry and the US Securities and Exchange Commission announcing lawsuits against crypto titans Binance and Coinbase last week, industry is slowly being wooed by the UK’s less hard-line approach to regulation.
As Brian Quintenz, head of policy at 16z Crypto, Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto arm, said of the UK, ‘we have seen a wonderful openness to the promise of the technology across parties, as well as a strong interest in whatever regulatory regime comes online that focuses on consumer protection and fostering innovation.’ With regulators stepping up enforcement action in the US and growing uncertainty around new legislation, this is a moment for the UK government to seize.
ABORTION OUTRAGE
In a case that is tragic and controversial in equal measure, a woman in the UK has been sentenced to more than two years in prison for procuring drugs to induce an abortion after the legal limit.
The mother of three received the medication under the “pills by post” scheme after a remote consultation, but the prosecutors said the woman knowingly misled the British Pregnancy Advisory Service (BPAS) to believe she was below the 10-week cut-off. In England, Scotland and Wales, abortion is generally legal up to 24 weeks but is carried out in a hospital or clinic after 10 weeks.
It’s a story that makes you blink – is this in the UK or the American South? The severity of the sentencing has provoked wide-spread outrage and calls to decriminalise abortion in the UK. Whether you agree with her actions or not, it is hard to see how a prison sentence for a woman who, by the judge’s description is ‘'racked with guilt and plagued by nightmares over her actions’, serves any public good. Particularly when the average punishment for a violent crime is about 18 months in prison. Clare Murphy, BPAS chief executive said as much: “You don’t have to think what she did was right. The question is what is the appropriate response to that?” She added: “The criminal law is quite simply not the answer.”
The number of women and girls facing police investigations over current abortion laws has risen over the past three years, and this case is sparking a wider rethink. Labour MP, Stella Creasy and Caroline Nokes, a senior Tory MP have waded in, with the former calling for the justice secretary to recommend that the King use the royal prerogative of mercy to grant the woman a conditional pardon. While Labour’s 2019 manifesto included a commitment to decriminalise terminations, the party has not confirmed whether it still backs the policy and the Conservative Party’s position is unclear.
On Saturday campaigners will be marching to demand decriminalisation and if there is cross-party support for a legal change, it could be historic.
OUR SPIN ON THE ASHES
One of international sport’s oldest rivalries, the Ashes, begins its latest chapter today. In the long history of the game of cricket, England versus Australia has always been an intensely competitive meeting. It holds a special significance for the players involved, drawing on a rich heritage and a canon of iconic moments in matches past. The Ashes have an uncanny ability to generate more memorable moments than any other cricketing contest.
This latest Ashes series has been the most hotly anticipated for nearly two decades. Both teams are in a rich vein of form and are brimming with confidence. Australia boasts two prolific run-scorers in Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne together with a battery of skilled fast bowlers. England has set tongues wagging with their commitment to an ultra-aggressive and uber-creative style of play, nicknamed ‘Bazball’ after their coach and brainchild of this new approach, Brendon ‘Baz’ McCullum. Thus far, Bazball has reaped huge rewards with England winning 10 of their 12 matches under McCullum.
The build-up to the Ashes always brings an amusing and slightly silly war of words. England bowler Stuart Broad wound up the Australians by saying that the last Ashes series, won by Australia 4-0, doesn’t count as a real Ashes victory, because of Covid-19 restrictions. And Ollie Robinson said a few weeks ago that England could give Australia “a good hiding”.
Predictions for the series’ outcome are not being made with much certainty by the pundits. It is simply too close to call confidently. But all cricket journalists are united in their belief that it will be a classic series and hugely entertaining. The Weekend Box’s cricket correspondent trusts the Audley management will see the virtue of employees keeping an eye on the cricket at work, especially given this recent (and highly convincing) study that says cricket watching boosts productivity!
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.