Tories in Manchester – united?
Image credit: Flickr/No10
Rolf Merchant was Audley’s man in Manchester earlier this week, attending the Conservative Party Conference to pick up the policy discussions, assess the vibe and hear what MPs and secretaries of state think about the direction of their party. Here’s what he made of it:
Party like it’s 2025
On the fringe, the contentious question of the future of the Conservative Party gained plenty of airtime. In one sense it is remarkable that the party should find itself so preoccupied about the longer-term when it still has at least a year of governing to deliver. But of course, all the polls point to a Tory loss at the next general election, so much of the conversation could be seen as a pre-cursor for the tortured debates that will come in 2025 in the event of a Labour victory.
It juxtaposed with the set piece speeches on the main stage which were laser focused on how to recover in the polls and have a shot at winning the general election – at least for the most part (more on that below).
Think Tank Onward ran a fringe session entitled “What is the Future of Conservatism?”, which was packed to the rafters. In a short space of time, it went incredibly deeply into the roots of what “conservatism” actually means, particularly in this day and age. The common ground on the panel, which featured Michael Gove, Laura Farris, Tom Tugendhat, and Nick Timothy, was that family and nation should be at the centre of Conservative Party values. And while they agreed that the state should be smaller overall, it nonetheless needs to play a more active role in certain parts of life. The debate is well worth watching to get a snapshot of some of the fissures in conservative thinking.
On day two, Liz Truss and her allies ran their ‘Rally for Growth’, an attempt to push their low-tax, anti-regulation policies up the agenda. The event attracted a queue hundreds of people long (albeit for a smallish room in the Midland Hotel). But it wasn’t clear how many were attending as Trussite true-believers and how many were going out of simple curiosity. Rishi Sunak will have been vexed by the antics of Truss and co, and they might yet cause parliamentary arithmetic headaches for him.
Meanwhile, another faction, the New Conservatives, representing the socially right wing of the party also made some noise. This group held a fringe event where they called for much lower immigration and ending the ‘gender ideology’ in schools.
The rump of the Party that finds itself more socially liberal and less inclined to believe in the feasibility or prudence of immediate and sweeping tax cuts was comparatively quiet. David Gauke, who is in fact no longer a Party member after resigning in 2019, voiced his concern at a ConservativeHome event about what could happen to the centre right after a heavy Conservative defeat in the next election. Gauke’s worry is that a party too concerned about ‘woke bashing’ will lose its focus on supporting free-market capitalism, or put younger people off the Conservative brand and values altogether.
Rishi hits reset – but his would-be successors are lurking
Rishi Sunak’s speech, the main set piece, was generally well-received by the party faithful. The Conservative Commentariat thought it reflected the prime minister’s beliefs and priorities; he set out a programme for things in which he genuinely believes. Yet he clearly faces an uphill battle to position himself as a ‘change leader’ when his party has been governing for over 13 years. And as Audley CEO Chris Wilkins points out in this piece, while the prime minister’s strategy makes sense, the rhetoric is simply not reflecting reality.
Sunak’s speech was not the only one to attract attention. Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who is (un)subtly positioning herself as a future leader, made a controversial address about the need to curb immigration and attacking the Human Rights Act. Not for the first time, Braverman’s rhetoric attracted criticism, including from those within her party. Putting the content of her speech to one side, a number of people said as a speaker she is much improved, a clear indication of Braverman’s work behind the scenes develop her credibility as future leader.
AI dominates the policy discussion
There were eight events over the course of the Conference with “AI” in the title – and plenty more where AI was a core part of the discussion. This is no surprise given AI is now the number one policy issue globally.
Rishi Sunak was given praise for the attention he is giving personally to AI. There was a good deal of speculation about the AI Safety Summit being hosted in the UK in November, which the Prime Minister is hosting, and whether it will live up to billing. Meanwhile, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is pinning his hopes on the deployment of AI in public services as a route to improve productivity in government.
The discussions did not move the debate about AI regulation on too far and it is clear there remains a huge amount of work to do within the political world to get to grips with what AI really means. Representatives from the tech sector and AI startups themselves, such as those who spoke at the Startup Coalition fringe, openly wondered why the Summit is branded “safety” rather than “success”. They felt Britain’s tech ecosystem needs to be invited into the policy conversation much more if the UK has any chance of becoming a global AI leader.
But what do the public think?
Party members are not a representative sample of voters, so the debate inside can feel detached from the public’s priorities. As an antidote to this, a fringe featuring recent focus group findings, led by friend of Audley James Johnson of JL Partners, provided a revealing snapshot of what voters think right now.
It was interesting to see how few policies gain cut-through or make an impression on people. (For instance, Rishi Sunak’s announcement about a £1bn fund for “left behind” towns made at the very start of the conference has already been largely forgotten). This a big issue for the Conservatives. The problem, as James put it, is that the “policy announcements are like baubles with no Christmas tree” – in other words, there is no uniting vision or coherent direction of travel for voters to hook onto.
What will give the Tories some hope is that Sir Kier Starmer is not loved and certainly not seen as a clear improvement on Sunak. This is even true among people who voted Labour in 2019; many said they prefer the style of Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner. Another comforting data point is that 38% of voters are still genuinely undecided, which means there is still a lot to play for. And in the minds of voters, the prospect of of a ‘worse v worser’ election may mean many stay at home, meaning turnout could be a key factor.
And a word on the ‘vibe’
Much is made of the general feel of party conferences and the morale and mood of delegates. It is thought to be an unscientific though telling barometer of “how it’s all going.”
Most long-term conference goers I spoke to thought it was a relaxed and content atmosphere this year, certainly not febrile nor obviously despairing – whatever MPs may be inwardly thinking about their electoral chances. However, they added that relatively positive feeling was undoubtedly accentuated by the comparison with the mania of the 2022 Party Conference, where the wheels well and truly came off Liz Truss’ premiership with u-turn after u-turn.
The more seasoned lobbyists, policy wonks and public affairs people were wondering how the Labour Conference will compare. Most are predicting that they will be much busier with meetings, a gamut of must-see fringes, and awash with excited delegates and MPs starting to smell power again.
Ultimately, the success of the Conservative Conference will only be measured in comparison to Labour’s. We’ll see what the opposition and putative government-in-waiting can achieve in Liverpool next week.
By Rolf Merchant, Director of Audley.