Weekend Box #100: Arm’s Race to #1, A Body (Shop) Blow & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
Image credit/The Conservative Party on Flickr/License
WILL COUNTRYFOLK VOTE AGAINST THE GRAIN?
A new poll of residents in the 100 most rural parliamentary constituencies provided the newest wince-inducing data for the prime minister and his team. The survey, conducted for the Country Land and Business Association, found that Labour now leads the Tories among countryside dwellers.
The poll revealed that the share of the Labour vote in these seats has climbed to 37% (up 17 points on the 2019 general election result), with the Conservatives falling to 34% (down 25 points). The Tories currently hold 96 of the 100, but if this poll was translated into votes on election day, the Conservatives may lose over 50 of these seats, with Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Thérèse Coffey all at risk.
Country dwellers do have specific reasons beyond the issues typically cited (the cost-of-living, NHS waiting lists, housing costs, and immigration) to be disillusioned with the Conservatives. Farmers’ unhappiness is now well known as they face labour shortages, changes in subsidy regimes, and new trade deals, all the result of Brexit. Demographic changes might be impacting rural politics too, as typically more left-leaning city dwellers move to the country.
Labour will be glad to see their potential supporter base broadening and after overturning big majorities in Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections overnight, their electoral prospects look bright. In addition, the Liberal Democrats, who have performed well in rural south west England, will be sensing the opportunity for gains.
Falling outside of the northern ‘red wall’ and the southeastern ‘blue wall’, rural folk might feel their communities have simply been ignored by national politics for too long. A change in governing party could be their best bet.
ARM’S RACE TO #1
Arm Holdings, the semiconductor firm headquartered in Cambridge, has recently undergone a remarkable surge in its market value after it turned its back on the FTSE100. Since it started trading on the Nasdaq in September, its stock price has gone up by 192%. At the end of Monday's trading, Arm was worth a whopping $152.8bn, eclipsing the value of all but two FTSE 100 companies - Shell and AstraZeneca.
The driving force behind Arm's meteoric ascent lies in its strategic alignment with the burgeoning field of AI. The company's extensive roster of clients includes industry heavyweights like Nvidia, who use its chips in their products.
Beyond its association with AI, Arm's appeal lies in its ability to cater to the evolving demands of the tech landscape, including AI-optimized data centres, AI acceleration, and edge computing. With the projected $7 trillion AI market on the horizon, Arm stands poised to capitalize on the immense opportunities presented by technological innovation.
But there are some potential concerns too. Some worry the firm’s stock price is too high compared with how much money it’s making. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 124, reminiscent of the exuberance of the dotcom era. As the company navigates the complexities of the semiconductor industry and strives to maintain its momentum, the looming prospect of insider selling, with SoftBank retaining a substantial stake, adds another layer of uncertainty.
Arm is trying some new things to keep growing, like offering subscriptions instead of one-time payments for its products. It’s also looking to sell more chips in places like China. However, there's still some uncertainty about whether Arm's current trajectory heralds sustained success or a speculative bubble. In any case, its journey undoubtedly reflects the zeitgeist of contemporary tech investing.
Image credit/A P Monblat/License
A BODY (SHOP) BLOW
Body Shop, a stalwart of the British high street for almost five decades collapsed into administration this week, putting 100 shops and thousands of jobs at risk. The business was founded by environmental campaigners Dame Anita Roddick and her husband Gordon in 1976, and was a trailblazer for ethical, cruelty-free cosmetic products and sustainable practices.
The company listed on the London Stock Exchange in 1984 and founders later admitted the move was a double-edged sword. With the added pressure to drive profits whilst maintaining its ethical stance, it forced a sale to L’Oreal in 2006 and later to a Brazilian company. Once out of the Roddicks’ hands, the brand appeared to be floundering when it came to its vision and what it sought to represent.
Some have argued that the downfall of the Body Shop was a classic case of ‘go woke go broke’ as it waded into the trans-rights debate, but more likely was that it lost its distinctiveness. Today ethical and sustainable practices are an industry standard as opposed to a selling point, with a wave of nimble online brands mounting fierce competition.
The death knell for the business was its sale to Aurelius in November, a European private equity firm that specialises in distressed companies. Prior to the Body Shop, Aurelius had already bought and broken up two UK companies.
Its decision to place the Body Shop into administration followed poor sales during the Christmas trading period and it now faces a similar fate to other national retailers like Wilko who have struggled amid a ‘high-street recession’.
Insolvency experts say Aurelius could simply be slimming down The Body Shop in order to buy it back and run it more profitably, but whether the retailer has any future on British high streets is uncertain as ever.
AGE IS JUST A NUMBER - EVEN 100!
Age is certainly no barrier for Taghi Askari. Taking to the diving board ahead of the World Aquatics Masters Championships, the centenarian took a deep breath and plunged in like he had so many times before. Diving since he was a teenager, and winning a silver and bronze medal at the first-ever Asian Games in 1951, the Iranian diver shows no signs of slowing down in spite of his 100 years.
He has not competed at a national level since he was 41, and it has been over 70 years since he claimed his medal at the aforementioned Asian Games, but the 100-year old seemed undaunted by the prospect of being the oldest competitor in the World Aquatics Masters Championships.
“For me, I have had a love of diving since I was a teenager until today. I have always loved diving. Nothing has changed between 1951 and now, except my performance!” Askari explained.
He first came across diving while at a swimming pool near his home in Iran; he observed the other children leaping and somersaulting into the pool and this ignited a lifelong passion in him.
Askari beats the oldest ever Olympian by a cool 28 years and his emotional return to the springboard was greeted by jubilant crowds in Doha. He undertook an exhibition dive, diving from the 1m platform, to promote the World Aquatics Master Championships that are taking place in late February and his plunge into the pool made him the oldest person ever to undertake a competitive dive.
Jackie Joyner-Kersee, the all-time great heptathlete, once said “Age is no barrier. It’s a limitation you put on your mind” and Askari this week proved that very point in inspirational and graceful style.
Image credit/Number 10 and Amber Case on Flickr/Edited/License 1 & 2
WEEKEND BOX #100: WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
Now, to mark the occasion that is The Weekend Box #100, we’d like to do something a little different.
In October 2021 we published the very first Box. That first edition looked at two figures whose stars, you could say, were rising. One was then-PM Boris Johnson, who was enjoying a belated post-Covid victory lap at that year’s Conservative Party conference. The other was Amazon’s domestic robot Astro, who had just appeared in the world and who Amazon hoped would appear in all our homes, before long. 99 newsletters later, we thought it fitting to look again at these ‘stars’ of Weekend Box #1 and ask: where are they now?
Well, you might remember that a little under 9 months after Weekend Box #1, in July 2022, the fortunes of one-time electoral juggernaut Boris Johnson took a decisive fall. Still, this former star of the Conservatives continues to enjoy a cult following, which is more than you can say for his replacement. As his successor struggles in the polls, there is speculation in the press – a sort of backbenchers’ bat signal? – about a return to frontline politics, despite how that went last time. Some theorise he can rescue his party from a 1997-style wipeout using the powers that took them to victory in 2019. Could history repeat itself with BoJo? And would it be as tragedy, or skipping straight to farce?
Meanwhile, after reportedly shifting only “a couple of hundred units,” Amazon last year announced that Astro had been repurposed as a security bot for businesses at the low, low price of $2,349.99.
A shame; we can think of a former PM who recently moved into a £3.8m mansion and could have used a domestic robot. I can also think of a PM who could help Amazon shift some of those unsold Astro units, when he packs up for Silicon Valley…
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.