Weekend Box: Sturgeon resigns, Berlin elections & more
Welcome to the Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
Credit: Simon Dawson / No10 Downing Street
NIC CALLS IT QUITS
This week Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation in a shock exit, after stating only three weeks ago that she had ‘plenty left in the tank’. On Wednesday she emphasised the personal toll leadership had taken, in a speech that in many ways echoed Jacinda Arden’s reasons for stepping down as Prime Minister of New Zealand last month.
The race to find Sturgeon’s replacement has already begun, but the gaping hole she has left in the party is undeniable. Her campaigning talent, confident communication and reputation as an astute operator will be hard to replace. Next month the now-postponed SNP special conference on independence will decide how to pursue a referendum when the UK Supreme Court ruled it could not unilaterally call one. With Sturgeon gone, the future of the union now hangs in the balance and this will be the first great test for Scotland’s new leader.
Sturgeon’s exit has also opened up the prospect of a significant Labour revival in Scotland after the party’s annihilation in 2015, which today leaves it with just 1 Scottish MP. As Scottish Labour gathers for its annual conference in Edinburgh this weekend, this is a pivotal moment for Sir Keir Starmer and his party to, in his words, ‘be the change that Scotland needs’.
And where does this leave the Conservative Party? Douglas Ross, the Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party has tried to play down fears, citing that the Conservatives have 6 MPs in Scotland to Labour’s 1. However, Labour will start the next election campaign from second place in more SNP seats. With Labour bounding ahead in polls nationwide and even greater potential now for Labour to tip the balance in those key swing seats, the Conservative Party is in a precarious position.
With the absence of its charismatic leader and the prospect of a divisive leadership contest, Scotland’s independence movement is being tested, but two years away from a General Election, the Conservative Party is facing its own test.
ELECTION DRAMA IN ‘CHAOS CITY’
“Ich bin ein Berliner” is not the proud boast it once was. Many residents of the German capital are falling out of love with the city, citing poor local services, creaking infrastructure, and then there was the national embarrassment of Berlin’s international airport which opened in 2020, billions over budget and years behind schedule.
Berlin’s nadir since reunification could be pinpointed to the 2021 city elections, which were annulled by the constitutional court due to ‘irregularities’. It is worrying indeed when a major European capital cannot run democratic processes in line with electoral law. On New Year’s Eve 2022, violence spread throughout Berlin, with unruly mobs attacking police and emergency services. Many would sympathise with Bavarian politician Markus Söder when he described Berlin as a ‘chaos city’.
Berliners had their say in the re-run of the election last week, where the opposition CDU surged to top the polls at the expense of the three governing parties - SPD, FDP and Greens. It was the CDU’s best result since 1999, and a setback for chancellor Olaf Schulz’s SPD. For the long-term left-leaning city, this was a distinct upset.
The idiosyncrasies of Berlin’s mixed member proportional representation electoral system mean that it is possible that the governing parties will cobble together a coalition agreement and thus stay in power.
But regardless of what happens next, the election has highlighted the administrative troubles and unrest Berlin is facing. The travails of Germany’s capital might be seen as a microcosm of the hit that the nation’s reputation has taken in the last 12 months.
Berliners will simply hope to see their city working much more effectively, perhaps with the help of a new dose of legendary German efficiency.
MODI VS THE BBC
Earlier this week, tax department officials raided the BBC’s Delhi and Mumbai offices, ostensibly as part of a “tax evasion investigation.” Reportedly, documents and phones belonging to journalists were taken and the offices were sealed, and while some staff were ultimately allowed to leave, some were asked to remain “to cooperate with the ongoing inquiries.”
The raids follow the release of the BBC’s two-part documentary ‘India: The Modi Question’, which explores Prime Minister Modi’s complicity in the 2002 Gujarat riots, during which over 1,000 mostly-Muslim citizens of India were killed. The deaths of 59 Hindu pilgrims, which the Muslim community was blamed for, are cited as having instigated the riots.
The documentary, which was swiftly banned by the Indian government under emergency laws, has sparked uproar in the country. It has revealed a previously-unpublished report by the British Foreign Office which found Prime Minister Modi “directly responsible” for enabling violence against Muslims during the riots in his role as Chief Minister of Gujarat. Authorities have arrested students who have tried to screen the documentary and at the government’s orders, YouTube and Twitter removed links to it.
Modi’s government and its allies have attacked the BBC for its ‘colonial mindset’ and accused the broadcaster of ‘setting itself up as both judge and jury to resurrect Hindu-Muslim tensions’. Given India is hosting the G20 Summit this year under the theme ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’, it is unsurprising that Modi has gone to such lengths to suppress discourse about alleged ethical cleansing and complicity in the subordination of India’s religious minorities.
This tension also comes as Air India announced a colossal deal with Airbus and Rolls Royce to provide new aircraft, which has been hailed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for the jobs it will create and the boost to UK exports. This has no doubt played into the UK government’s limited response. When pressed about the documentary, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly was quick to stress the ‘independence’ of the BBC and its commitment to India as a trading partner.
Rather than the BBC ‘resurrecting’ tensions, the documentary has arguably held up a mirror to unresolved divisions in India, and the incompatibility of its attacks on the press with the global image it is cultivating. In the UK, it also revealing of what the government is willing to overlook as it pursues a free trade agreement with India.
GREEN WITH ENVY
European leaders have been scrambling to respond to the United States’ plans to boost its domestic green energy industry since President Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in November. One American journalist said European politicians are “freaking out” about it.
This week, EU President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc was developing a “broad strategy” to deal with the Act. The misleadingly entitled IRA promises to pump $369bn of government money into US cleantech, designed to rapidly grow green industries. The sheer scale of the Act’s provisions, and the violence with which America has u-turned from climate shirker to global green champion, has undoubtedly put the frighteners on other western countries.
Subsidies of this level have led to charges of protectionism being levelled at the US. Fledgling cleantech industries in the EU and the UK, spanning green hydrogen, electric vehicles and carbon capture, might well be unable to keep up with US competitors.
To some, the best hope seems to be cutting red-tape and creating a supportive regulatory environment. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is opposed to raising EU funding for cleantech and instead wants to make national policies more green investment friendly.
Commentators say the UK should use its Brexit freedoms to establish competitive regulatory frameworks in select areas such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. Outside of the EU bloc, the UK can only make calculated bets on certain industries; it can’t hope to match the scale of US subsidies.
Yet even the combined economies of the EU can’t match the US on taxpayer funding. Investment analysts have said the US incentives are so comprehensive, European countries will struggle to compete in a meaningful way whatever they choose to do.
Credit: Redspork02
SUPER BUSINESS
Sir Elton John. Ben Affleck. Jennifer Lopez. And that’s just the adverts. Sunday’s NFL championship game, more commonly known as the Super Bowl, often draws in audiences of 100 million upwards. Less a football game and more an entertainment spectacle, the four-hour broadcast is the pinnacle of the USA’s commercialisation of major sporting moments.
The figures around the Super Bowl are astonishing. Forbes estimates that last year a 30-second advert cost $5.6 million dollars; $485 million was spent in total on advertising, and $4.3 billion was bet on the game.
The only person not making money, it seems, is the halftime performer. Due to the 30-minute slot being categorised as an advert, Rihanna’s concert, in which she de-facto announced her pregnancy, won’t have earnt her a penny. Kind of. The coveted slot is an opportunity to drive sales and performance earned her brand Fenty Beauty $5.6 million in 12 hours.
Across the pond, the UK’s sporting scene paints a very different picture. On the same weekend that the Super Bowl’s various revenues streamed in, the Six Nations did battle in the eponymous tournament. But the UK rugby industry will see no such financial reward, having failed to capitalise on its commercial potential.
According to a Nielsen Sports study, the Six Nations has earnt c.£50 million from its broadcast rights, while thanks to a move to pay TV, both Formula 1 and English men’s cricket generated approximately four times that, despite having similar interest levels. Sponsorships such as those of the Six Nations and English Premiership have fallen by nearly 30% and 20% respectively, while football’s Premier League teams have seen double digit growth in key sponsorships.
The Welsh Rugby Union is also in particular focus, with players threatening to strike due to impending financial cuts and a lack of clarity around contract renewals. Considering that winning Super Bowl players are pocketed $157,000 each on Sunday, it’s clear there are lessons to be learnt from the Americans when it comes to monetising sport.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audley.uk.com.
For now, that’s the weekend box officially closed.