Weekend Box: By-Bye For Now, Putin Hits a BRIC(S) Wall & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business, and cultural news from around the world.
Image credit/Number 10 on Flickr/Edited/License
BY-BYE… FOR NOW?
Yesterday’s trio of by-elections might feel like an end-of-year report for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Two sizeable losses and one narrow victory rather sum up the situation for him: largely negative but with perhaps just a small glint of hope.
Labour will be well pleased with capturing Selby and Ainsty in Yorkshire, a seat solidly Conservative since 2010 with a majority of 20,000 at the last general election. The swing away from the Tories is in many ways no great surprise, given the state of the polls and clear voter frustration with the way the government has and is handling the rising cost of living.
The loss of Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats looks even worse for the Tories. One of the crucial voting shifts that helped the Conservatives win a majority in the 2015 and 2019 general elections was the decline of the Lib Dems in the West Country. The Lib Dem victory last night is on a similar scale to their success in Tiverton and Honiton last year and their numerous wins in May’s local elections. The concern in Conservative HQ will be that dozens of seats in Somerset, Devon, and Cornwall will be under serious threat in the next general election, creating yet another front for them to fight on.
Counterintuitively, it was Uxbridge in greater London, with the smallest majority to defend (7,000) of the three, that the Conservatives held. Boris Johnson’s old seat looked ripe for the taking for Labour, but their hopes were dashed by local voters’ anger at the proposed expansion of the London Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), a flagship policy of Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan. It is unusual for the governing party to win a mid-term by-election on local issues, but the Tories clung on, if only by 450 votes.
The Conservative losses in Selby and Somerton point to a growing trend of anti-Tory voting. A public fed up with 13 years of Conservative government and its recent performance has translated into voters’ main motivation being to back whoever has the best chance of beating the them.
Usual caveats apply: these results won’t necessarily be replicated at a general election either locally or nationally. Turnout is always much lower in by-elections and they are often used to vent frustration at the government. Many Conservative voters stayed at home. These will offer crumbs of comfort to a beleaguered prime minister, who is unlikely to be enjoying a summer holiday.
Image credit/Presidential Executive Office of Russia/License
PUTIN HITS A BRIC(S) WALL
Reviled in the international community, his country hit with sanctions, and now unable to attend a summit of fellow leaders of emerging economies, it would seem the walls are closing in on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
On Wednesday, it was confirmed that the Russian president would not attend August’s BRICS summit in Johannesburg, after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed concerns about an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant that could have been used to detain him on his arrival.
The ICC’s warrant, issued in March and placing “individual criminal responsibility” on President Putin for war crimes in Ukraine, has been rejected by Russia on the grounds that the nation is not a member of the organisation. However, South Africa’s status as an ICC signatory would oblige the country to assist in his arrest, an action that President Ramaphosa described as a “declaration of war.”
The annual BRICS summits began in 2009 as a means for a grouping of nations with emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa – to discuss intergovernmental co-operation. Although President Putin will join by video link, his inability to attend the summit in person is further evidence of Russia’s increasing alienation from geopolitics, as the invasion of Ukraine continues.
Western politicians will also be pleased that the president has been physically cut off from his fellow BRICS leaders, whose stances on the conflict in Ukraine and relationships with Russia have been the subject of both scrutiny and anxiety. Brazil, for example, was subject to a “diplomatic push” in May by Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, to win over non-aligned nations in the war. The Russian Wagner Group is known to operate across the African continent, while China’s influence over the invasion of Ukraine, in spite of President Xi Jinping’s claims that its stance is neutral, is a source of continuous speculation.
MALIGN FINFLUENCE
Where do you get your news? “The Weekend Box,” we hear you cry! For the unfortunate few who don’t receive our weekly roundup, the days of consuming one’s news via the old-fashioned broadsheets or trusted TV news readers are far behind us.
A survey conducted by MRM found that almost three quarters of young people trust social media influencers for information over traditional news sources; quite the responsibility for the likes of Ms Kardashian, promoting her new favourite pink lemonade to her 362m followers. This phenomenon extends to financial advice, and while consumer protection law prohibits influencers from marketing products without clear transparency (or as we know it, using the hashtag #ad) the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) decided this week that they need to go further.
The rise of influencers marketing high-risk financial products to their audiences is behind a consultation begun by the FCA on Monday, and which is set to prohibit the financial damage caused to consumers because of poor advice. The watchdog stated, “for those touting products illegally, we will be taking action against you.”
The FCA found in 2021 nearly 60% of under 40s based their risky investment decisions on social media posts and the news. As a result of the consultation, ‘finfluencers’ (financial influencers) will be held personally responsible for posting unsolicited financial advice.
The rules on marketing digital currencies and incentivising referrals through bonuses come into effect on October 8th, and will apply to both UK and non-UK companies whose consumers fall within FCA jurisdiction.
All in all it appears a very positive step, particularly in light of how long it’s taken to pass the Online Safety Bill, which will place greater responsibility on social media platforms. Positive, that is, unless you were looking to the Kardashians for advice on your next crypto purchase…
COMMONWEALTH GAMES COST THE EARTH
Australia has become the latest nation to withdraw from hosting the Commonwealth Games, citing the exorbitant costs of doing so.
In 2015 Edmonton, Canada, successfully bid to host the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Soon after it withdrew for funding reasons, as did subsequent host Durban. As a result, Birmingham agreed to host in 2022 instead of 2026 as originally planned, with Victoria, Australia assuming responsibility of the 2026 slot until this week.
Hosting large-scale events like these is a financial gamble; will the two-week economic inflow and boost to national pride top the costs of staging? For India, which hosted the 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi, the $11bn price tag probably didn’t exceed the positive economic impact, especially given that just $250m was budgeted for staging. For London in 2012, a central part of the bid rationale was the regeneration of London’s East End, but the debate continues over the success of said regeneration.
FIFA are facing a similar situation with the World Cup as costs increase due to tournament expansion (48 teams instead of the usual 32 from 2026 onwards). In response, the body has seen a shift towards more joint bids between countries. The Women’s World Cup kicks off this week, co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand, and the men’s in 2026 will be jointly hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
This might prove a solution for the Olympics but is unlikely to solve the issue for the Commonwealth Games, where the reticence towards hosting reflects shifting societal attitudes. Founded The British Empire Games in 1930, the Games are an unavoidable reminder of Britain’s colonial past. As Commonwealth countries increasingly question this status (Barbados became a republic in 2021, and Jamaica looks to follow suit), a multi-billion dollar occasion to determine just who in these countries can run fastest seems a little out of touch.
WILD FOR REWILDING
The rewilding craze that is working its way through Europe received further validation this week, with the expansion of a project to re-introduce bison to a Kent woodland.
At first glance, the idea of plonking 1000kg beasts in an area which hasn’t seen them for millennia seems utterly mad. But as the experiment completed its first year this week, it has yielded considerable success, according to the Kent Wildlife Trust.
Described as “ecosystem engineers”, the roaming bison have broken up soil, felled invasive pine trees, and trampled rampant rhododendra, all of which is giving opportunity for more varied flora and fauna to grow and flourish.
Rewilding is an approach favoured by conservation groups in the UK, who want to see natural ecosystems once found in Britain re-emerge and thereby improve biodiversity. Other projects include the re-introduction of beavers, forming new habitats for long-disappeared oysters in Scotland, and the restoration of peat bogs.
The campaign for rewilding is not without its controversies. Farmers are concerned there is far too much enthusiasm for rewilding and that it will lead to inappropriate projects. Other worries are that rewilding will reduce the amount of land available for food production or cause newly re-introduced species to disrupt agricultural land and livestock.
Environment Secretary Michael Gove was a major proponent of rewilding and encouraging farmers to think about their role as ‘environmental stewards.’ Some have eagerly taken up this challenge, while others argue it is all a huge distraction from Britain’s pressing need for greater food security. Farming policy is yet another issue to be sorted in Brexit Britain.
Of course, no part of this debate will be worrying the bison of Kent. How we envy them.
And that’s it. The Weekend Box will be taking a short summer break. Don’t worry, we’ll be back soon.
I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.