Weekend Box #110: Sunak’s Mayoral 'Mare, Quinn Calls it Quits & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
MAYORAL 'MARE THREATENS SUNAK
Yesterday millions voted in a mix of council and mayoral elections across England. It was the last batch of elections before the general, still widely expected to be in November.
It is also the latest moment of possibly fatal danger for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. His party, with a penchant for regicide, seems ever closer to displacing him.
Should the Conservatives fail to hold on to both of the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoralties, and don’t pick up the new North Yorkshire mayoralty, things will almost certainly get ugly for Sunak.
London has been virtually written off by all but a few optimistic Tories. Little hope exists about results in councils in urban northern England, where the Conservatives performed unusually well when these seats were last up for grabs, following a bounce in popularity for the party from the successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout.
But if the Conservatives lose scores of councillors in the midlands and south of England, traditionally the party’s strongest base, it could be curtains for Sunak.
For the last 18 months, voting patterns in England have essentially been ‘anti-Tory.’ Many people are going to the polls voting for whoever they think is best placed to beat the standing or incumbent Conservative. It’s a message to 10 Downing St: ‘We’re not happy.’
A YouGov poll putting the Tories on a paltry 18% (they scored 44% at the last general election) and only just ahead of right-wing populist insurgent Reform tells you how stricken the Conservative brand is at the moment.
In truth, whether the Conservatives perform disastrously, or just quite badly, anti-Sunak plotters will use these elections as reason to move on him. It’s even possible Sunak will fall on his sword or call a snap general election.
Short of a near-miracle, stories of internecine warfare in the Tory party will be splashed on Sunday and next week. Just what the country needs.
Image credit/FromTheNorth on Flickr/License
QUINN CALLS IT QUITS
Appointments and departures of CEOs at the ‘big four’ banks are generally closely managed affairs, so there was some shock at the surprise announcement that Noel Quinn is to depart HSBC.
Quinn, 62 and a veteran of some 37 years at the bank, with five years as CEO, had been expected to continue for a few more years. His given reason was that the past few years have been “intense” – fair comment for someone who led the bank through the Covid pandemic while bridging a widening geopolitical chasm that the London-listed, significantly Asia-focused, commercial bank has had to bridge. Last year, Quinn successfully repelled a call by HSBC’s largest shareholder, Ping An, to split the bank and list the Asia business in Hong Kong. With HSBC shares this week at their highest since 2018 he can claim a successful run overall.
HSBC sources elaborated, saying that a timing issue also forced a decision, as group chair Mark Tucker and Quinn were both approaching a three-year deadline, with Quinn due to retire at around 65 and Tucker facing a nine-year recommended term limit around the same time. Quinn’s departure this year allows Tucker 12 months to appoint and bed in his successor, who will be Tucker’s fourth CEO during his tenure. Tucker is known to be ruthless and decisive, as with his previous removal of John Flint as CEO after an unsuccessful 18 months. Quinn’s initial appointment as interim CEO showed more close control.
Potential successors to Quinn from within HSBC include current CFO Georges Elhedery, chief executive of global banking and markets Greg Guyett, and chief of wealth and personal banking Nuno Matos. Externally, Tucker might consider candidates such as Aviva’s Amanda Blanc, ex-HSBC Lloyds chief Charlie Nunn - or perhaps a Hong Konger.
Image credit/World Economic Forum on Flickr/License
GAZA CRISIS CENTRE STAGE AT RIYADH SUMMIT
On Sunday and Monday this week Saudi Arabia hosted the World Economic Forum (WEF) special meeting in Riyadh covering a range of global issues related to the economy, energy, geopolitics, and the volatile situation in the Middle East.
Named the ‘Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development’ this is the first time Riyadh has hosted the WEF, and forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader Vision 2030 strategy, the country’s plan to diversify its economy away from oil.
The meetings occurred amidst the ongoing Gaza conflict, which remained a focal point of discussions in Riyadh. In a dedicated session to address the ongoing crisis, leaders deliberated the conflict and the imminent Israeli action in Rafah, and explored avenues for a breakthrough between both sides.
During the session, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly described the Israeli response in the months since the October 7th attack as a form of "collective punishment" against all Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, extending beyond its intended targets of Hamas militants. Madbouly emphasized the urgent need to exert maximum efforts to avert an Israeli incursion into Rafah.
British Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron, speaking at the summit, urged Hamas to accept what he described as a “generous” ceasefire package which Israel has put on the table. “I hope Hamas do take this deal and, frankly, all the pressure in the world and all the eyes in the world should be on them today saying ‘take that deal,’ accept the generosity of the offer of a ceasefire that has been negotiated with Israel.”
The Saudi foreign minister, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, in contrast, wanted more assurances from Israel in the negotiations. He insisted there could be no normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia unless there was “a credible and irreversible path to a Palestinian state.”
ROSES RISE TO SIX NATIONS VICTORY
Last weekend Brits watched as the Red Roses, true champions of their game of rugby, took England to its sixth consecutive victory in the Women’s Six Nations.
The English team were favourites to claim the Six Nations title after wins against both Italy and Wales. In each case, England were comfortably ahead of their opponents, beating Italy 48-0 and Wales 46-10.
Some criticism was levelled at the Roses for their performance in the Italy game, which saw players Sarah Beckett and Helena Rowland sent off the pitch. However, it was a different story by the time they came to play Wales, who put up a fight but still could not stop the Roses’ relentless push to victory.
Their astonishing 88-10 victory against Ireland the week before Saturday’s match with France created a great deal of anticipation for the final showdown in Bordeaux. Despite playing in an atmosphere that might put off other players, on their French hosts’ turf and surrounded by keen supporters of the home team, the Red Roses were undeterred, scoring five tries in the first half.
A red card against French player Assia Khalfaoui in the second half set the tone for the rest of the game, as France found themselves unable to close the gap with England who ultimately beat them 42-21.
The Red Roses will now be looking forward to next year’s Women’s Rugby World Cup to continue their winning streak – and what an occasion it will be, as England are hosting.
Image credit/Axel Drainville on Flickr/License
TIME’S TICKING ON CLOCKWORK ORANGE ESTATE
Residents of a housing estate used as a location for acclaimed director Stanley Kubrick’s classic film A Clockwork Orange are protesting plans by housing association Peabody, “one of Britain’s biggest providers of social housing,” to demolish their homes to make way for new ones.
Binsey Walk in Thamesmead (pictured) served as the backdrop for a famous scene in Kubrick’s 1971 film, in which violent gang-leader Alex (played by Malcolm McDowell) attacked the fellow young delinquents who made up his gang. The estate, which had been designed to be a “futuristic ‘town for the 21st century’,” was fitting for a film about a near-future London.
However, for all the ambition with which it was designed, poor transport links, mismanagement, and high unemployment led the estate to fall into disrepair over the years. Regeneration consultant Robert Bevan has even suggested that Kubrick’s use of Thamesmead for a film about violent youths “helped to solidify” the estate’s poor reputation.
The opening of the Elizabeth Line in 2022 led land values in the area to increase. Later that same year, Bexley Council gave outline planning permission to Peabody to replace 816 homes in Thamesmead with 2,778 new ones.
The plans provoked an outcry from Thamesmead residents, who have enlisted housing activists to occupy vacant flats and are urging Sadiq Khan to refuse permission to demolish the homes.
Residents are advocating for refurbishment of existing flats as an alternative. While Peabody claim they are “giving every resident the opportunity to move into a new home on the estate,” without changing social housing rent or charging homeowners additional mortgages, residents argue the money they have been offered would not afford them new homes.
Provided he is re-elected as mayor, we will have to see what Sadiq Khan, who has made major homebuilding commitments in the past and as part of his manifesto for re-election, makes of their demands.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.