Weekend Box: Taiwan Tensions, Discord Intelligence Leaks & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
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TAIWAN TENSIONS
In another display of China’s aggressive posture towards Taiwan, on Saturday the Chinese navy began three days of military drills around the island, including simulated missile attacks on cities and aircraft carriers. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu condemned the drills, warning that China is “trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan”, which is a self-ruled island but considered a breakaway province by President Xi Jinping.
While exercises and ‘bluff attacks’ on Taiwan are not new, this is the largest show of force since the visit of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in September. Tawian’s defence ministry reported that for the first time J-15 fighter jets were seen inside its air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
This moment of high tension with China was by no means out of the blue. It coincided with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s 10-day visit to the US and meeting with house speaker, Kevin McCarthy, which is the highest-profile meeting with a US official on American soil. The meeting was carefully managed and while President Biden has in the past vocalised US support for Taiwan in the event of an invasion, the US’ longstanding one China policy “oppos[ing] any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side” remains unchanged. While the US operates in a space of “strategic ambiguity” on the topic of Taiwan, President Macron was far from ambiguous on his flight home from Beijing this week. He is facing backlash in Washington DC and Europe alike for his comment that Europe must not become “just America’s followers” on Taiwan. He went on to say, that the continent must not get “caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy.” To many, the remarks demonstrated disarray over the EU’s China policy and were dangerously soft on Beijing and too critical of the US. With tensions with China and the West showing no signs of easing, this is another blow to the united position the EU is trying to forge towards Beijing.
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DISCORD INTELLIGENCE LEAKS: A DANGEROUS GAME
A "very serious risk to national security" took the world by storm earlier this week, as Pentagon documents leaked detailing the presence of Western special forces operating in Ukraine, doubts about peace talks between Russia and Ukraine before 2024, and secret plans for Egypt to supply Russia with rockets, amongst other information. In a shock revelation, the leaks have been traced to an unlikely source: the admin of a private server for video game chat.
A young member of this private server on Discord, a social media platform popular with gamers, came forward to speak to The Washington Post and revealed that the documents were shared by a member known pseudonymously as OG. OG initially wrote up the intelligence he had obtained from his place of work, an unnamed “military base,” with annotations to explain terminology and other information a layperson would not know.
OG later shared images of classified documentation, which followed a path through multiple other online platforms that the Post and Bellingcat have traced. It appears OG’s images were shared on two other Discord servers in succession, later making their way onto 4chan. Versions that appear to have been doctored to inflate the numbers of Ukrainian losses were subsequently disseminated on Telegram.
Yesterday, 21-year-old air national guardsman Jack Teixeira was arrested as the prime suspect behind the leaks, perhaps giving indication of OG’s true identity. Coinciding with the fourth anniversary of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange’s detention at Belmarsh prison, and with new efforts by MPs to convince the US attorney general to drop extradition charges against him, the leak is notable not only for its ‘grassroots’ origins but the fact that it was apparently not in the interest of a public outside of OG’s online acquaintances. Yet, OG’s alleged desire to keep his online friends ‘in the loop’ has had consequences he may not have anticipated, and will test trust at the levels of society and government internationally.
Image credit/The African Union Mission in Somalia
EARLY BIRD FLU JAB GETS THE WORM
18 months since the H5N1 strain of avian influenza re-emerged, it continues to be a costly disruption for the poultry industry, a scourge among wild bird populations, and a ‘big worry’ for the world’s public health bodies, according to incoming WHO chief scientist Jeremy Farrar.
This strain of ‘bird flu’ has now been found everywhere bar Antarctica and Australia. Tens of thousands of native British seabirds have been wiped out and its persistence across seasons means that more migratory birds will catch and spread it.
H5N1 spreads most aggressively in the tightly packed conditions found in the poultry industry which also presents the greatest risk to humans. The high viral load can cause a human to become infected, with the related potential for the virus to then mutate and spread among humans. Farmed birds are culled primarily to remove the risk to humans.
The loss of some 140 million farmed birds to date has led to a reappraisal of vaccinating birds. Asian countries do so routinely. Now France has followed suit by tendering for 80 million doses of bird vaccine. This is however complex to execute and could be grounds for trade barriers. The dilemmas and the risks continue, driven by the demand for chicken and eggs, while the retail cost of both has soared due to the disruption in supply.
So, how great is the risk to humans? In short, currently low but potentially profound. Modelling by the Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting put the chances of there being more than 100 cases by the summer at 2%, but if so the probability of more than 50,000 people dying within six months was estimated to be 38%. Among 870 confirmed cases in the last 20 years, 457 or 52% died, though this doesn’t allow for milder undetected cases.
In response, Gavi, the vaccine alliance, has called for more research into mRNA vaccines to immunise against H5N1 in humans. GSK, Moderna, and CSL are all developing sample human vaccines. Meanwhile, the UK Health Security Agency is preparing plans to deploy lateral flow tests for bird flu if human transmission does occur. If we have learned anything from the Covid pandemic, it must surely be that it pays to prepare.
PHARMA & FEDERAL JUDGE’S FIGHT FOR MIFEPRISTONE
While President Biden tours Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, back across the pond tensions are rising about a different Good Friday decision. Last week a Texas federal judge repealed FDA authorization for mifepristone, a key drug used in more than half the abortions in the US.
Matthew J. Kacsmaryk’s 67-page ruling is replete with anti-abortion language and invokes an 1873 law called the Comstock Act which made it illegal to send by mail (as mifepristone commonly is) "every article or thing designed, adapted, or intended for producing abortion, or for any indecent or immoral use." The law had effectively been dormant since Roe v Wade but is central to his ruling.
The judgement has attracted heavy criticism from domestic and international audiences, including a Washington federal judge who – just eighteen minutes later – issued an order to preserve access to the drug in 17 states, and more than 200 pharmaceutical executives who signed an open letter calling to reverse the decision that “ignores decades of scientific evidence and legal precedent.”
At the time of writing, the drug is still available while the Department of Justice appeals the decision. Governors in liberal states have made statements about stockpiling the drug for future use. How does this end? The adjudication between the federal judges’ rulings will likely fall to the supreme court, which currently has a 6-3 conservative majority and last year eliminated the constitutional right to abortion enshrined in the 1973 Roe v Wade ruling. Another victory for anti-abortionists looms.
Image Credit/ Elisa.rolle/License
FORBES: RIGHT SIDE OF 30, WRONG SIDE OF THE LAW
The prospect of a lengthy jail sentence on multiple counts of fraud was plainly bad news for Charlie Javice, the 31-year-old American start-up founder, who was charged by federal authorities in the US last week. But it was also bad news for Forbes. The magazine received some less-than-gentle mocking following the arrest of Javice since she was once listed on Forbes 30 Under 30, a coveted accolade among young entrepreneurs.
Charlie Javice now joins a list of Forbes 30 Under 30 alumni who have been charged with fraud, or have in fact been found guilty of committing fraud. Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of FTX, and Martin Shkreli, who served a prison sentence for running a Ponzi scheme, were also members of the Forbes 30 Under 30 list. Chris Bakke, a San Franciso-based investor and entrepreneur was quick to point out that, combined, 30 Under 30 alumni have been arrested for fraud and scams totaling more than $18bn.
The fate of those on Forbes’ list reflects a more general trend of the credulity of sections of the media when profiling up and coming entrepreneurs. Elizabeth Holmes, whose criminality and immorality when running Theranos defies belief, was at one stage a darling of Forbes. Similarly, the founder of WeWork, Adam Neumann, was a cover star of the magazine, but has since seen his reputation plummet.
Of course, many more people profiled in Forbes end up making a genuinely positive impact in their particularly field and are worthy of recognition. But perhaps a dash of the cynicism that characterises the British press might be needed across the pond!
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.