The year of global Britain
WRITTEN BY CHRIS WILKINS PHOTOGRAPHY BY NICK KANE
Four years ago, while searching for a theme to headline the prime minister’s ‘Lancaster House’ speech on Brexit, I coined the phrase ‘Global Britain’ to capture the government’s vision for the role a post-Brexit UK would play in the world.
Brexit, the speech argued, should not be seen as a retreat from the world stage but rather a recalibration in which a sovereign, independent United Kingdom would play an increasingly activist role in global affairs.
This year, with the Brexit process at an end after years of rancour and division, the government intends to turn those words into action in a bid to dispel any suggestion that Britain has turned inward and away from the world.
They will be helped in this by a series of fortunate events that work in their favour.
Firstly, Donald Trump’s departure from the White House restores the strength of one of the pillars on which the UK’s foreign policy has long relied.
Much has been made of President Biden’s supposed antipathy towards the prime minister, but their early exchanges have been positive, and the two men will find common cause in a number of areas: notably, tackling climate change, standing up to Russian aggression and casting a sceptical eye towards China. With the European Union adopting a softer stance towards Russia and China in particular, the UK sees an opportunity to differentiate itself and build a bridge with the Biden Administration.
Trump’s departure from the political stage also gives the prime minister a chance to reset his own reputation and to step away from the ‘Britain Trump’ label that the previous president accorded him. The prospect of a quick UK-US trade deal may have receded slightly, but the government judges a small delay to be a small price to pay for the presence of a more reliable ally in the White House – especially one with a firmer commitment to the values of liberal democracy than his predecessor sometimes displayed.
The importance of this relationship and agenda can be seen in the second thing working in the government’s favour: the prominent role the UK will play in some of the major international moments of the year.
In June, the UK will host the G7 summit – likely to be the first face-to-face meeting of world leaders for two years. This year, at Boris Johnson’s instigation, it has been expanded to embrace the D10 concept that President Biden has spoken of so warmly – effectively turning it into the Summit of Democracies he promised to hold in the first year of his presidency. Together, the ten leaders, who will gather in Cornwall, will represent over 60% of people living in democratic nations worldwide. At a time when democracy is considered to be in decline around the world, Boris Johnson is seeking to put himself at the centre of a new active multilateralism based on the shared interests of democratic and sovereign nation states.
This activist approach will seek to champion the importance of open trade, technological transformation, and scientific discovery as a means of democratic nations coming together to offer a counterpoint to Chinese hegemony in particular. It reflects a shift in the UK government’s approach to the challenge of China – away from what has derisively been labelled ‘operation kowtow’ towards a far more sceptical stance. With the European Union adopting a more conciliatory tone, exemplified by the decision to rush through the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in the final days of last year, the UK’s position marks a decisive break that brings it in line with the Biden Administration and the majority of Conservative backbench opinion.
It also reflects a determination to take a more activist approach towards the protection of human rights (noting of course that the Foreign Secretary himself is a human rights lawyer by background).
This approach was evident in the way the government responded to China’s actions in Hong-Kong and human rights abuses against the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang Province. Both have elicited strong responses from Boris Johnson’s government. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office would also point you to their speed in condemning the government of Alexander Lukashenka following the disputed election in Belarus, as well as the enacting of the so-called Magnitsky provisions in the Sanctions Act designed to target individuals guilty of human rights abuses around the world.
The way in which the democratic world deals with China in particular is also likely to be high on the agenda later in the year when the UK welcomes its five eyes partners to the annual security, trade, and technology summit, the Atlantic Future Forum, held aboard HMS Queen Elizabeth (a summit of which I am the strategic director). The AFF will also debate the outcome of the integrated defence & security review, which will provide further detail on how the UK’s hard and soft power will be deployed to shape a new vision for the UK’s engagement with the world over the next decade or more.
In November, the UK chairs the critical COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, providing the opportunity to play a leadership role in tackling the climate crisis – a topic that will also be put at the heart of its Presidency of the UN National Security Council, which it assumes in February. A successful event in Glasgow is critical to the realisation of the Foreign Secretary’s vision of the UK as a ‘great convenor’ that can corral and coordinate action on a global level.
Thirdly, while Britain has been particularly badly hit by the pandemic, ministers hope the rapid pace of the COVID vaccination programme holds out the prospect of the country emerging from the crisis more quickly than others. This, they hope, will help to kick-start the economic recovery and unlock investment in a bid to disprove the forecasts of those such as the OECD, who recently predicted the UK would recover more slowly than most other leading economies.
If so, the government would hope to end the year on an upward trajectory as the trade deals negotiated over the past twelve months by the Department for International Trade help to power the post-COVID recovery.
Of course, huge challenges remain. The future of the pandemic remains unknowable. The fallout of the deal signed with the European Union just before Christmas is only now starting to be felt. And notably, that deal completely overlooked the service economy that the UK relies on so heavily. In addition, for a government committed to projecting a narrative of ‘Global Britain’, the decision to abandon the commitment to the international aid target seems short-sighted and at odds with the wider agenda. It’s a decision that may yet be reviewed.
But the government thinks it has one further thing in its favour. Most beyond the borders of the United Kingdom still struggle to understand the drivers of Brexit. They see it as a decision to retreat from a leadership role in the world. Against this backdrop, the opportunity to challenge that perspective is significant and the power to pleasantly surprise is enormous.
The Foreign Office has rarely been an area of huge public interest in the UK. In the year ahead, it may just be one of the most interesting and dynamic departments to watch.
Chris Wilkins
Chris Wilkins is Managing Partner at Audley and regularly speaks and commentates on the Conservative Party and British politics. He was Director of Strategy and Chief Speechwriter to Prime Minister Theresa May in Downing Street Chris Wilkins Managing Partner at Audley between 2016-2017, the culmination of a twenty-year political career during which he served as a speechwriter and communications and strategy advisor to successive Conservative leaders and Cabinet Ministers.