Prospects for the US
WRITTEN BY MICHAEL CHERTOFF PHOTOGRAPHY BY RENAN KAMIKOGA
Last year, the US experienced one of the most tumultuous years in our history – and certainly in my lifetime. We are still embroiled in a widespread global pandemic, with thousands of deaths, significant economic impact, and uncertainty about the speed of the vaccine rollout. We have also just emerged from a highly contentious election that culminated in a Trump-incited attempted insurrection against the peaceful transition of the presidency to Joe Biden. Globally, the Trump era saw America loosen bonds with our allies and contend inconsistently with our rivals and adversaries.
The new year holds out the hope of better things in all these respects. With the leadership of President Biden and Vice President Harris, the United States government will be managed by an experienced and sober team of Cabinet secretaries, advisors, and senior officials. With the US Senate now under a Democratic Party majority, there is every reason to expect that most Senate confirmations will proceed smoothly. Although philosophical differences among Democratic senators and representatives may pose occasional challenges to enacting legislation, there is no expectation of the obstructive approach taken when Senator McConnell contested with President Obama.
Here is my best crystal ball:
PANDEMIC. While the vaccination process has got off to a slow start, I believe the Biden Administration will accelerate distribution. While this is occurring, however, I expect precautionary measures will still be required, including mask wearing, distancing, and restrictions on the size of gatherings. This will result in a continuation of remote virtual work and meetings and will likely also affect certain travel. I do think the new Administration will be more active in helping coordinate among states and in promoting testing. This should be helpful. My reasonable hope is that we turn the corner in the second quarter of this year. But even so, I believe that this experience will permanently transform some of the ways we work and shop, moving to more reliance on the internet. This in turn will accelerate the need to enhance the efficiency of our internet infrastructure, moving to 5G and even 6G, while emphasizing the need for designing better cyber security.
“Trump energized millions of voters, inducing them to accept conspiracy theories and lies over facts and even science. He validated right wing extremism, which has seen increased activity.”
GOVERNANCE. The Trump era seriously tested American democracy. We have had a President with authoritarian instincts who disdained the rule of law, encouraged bigotry, and promoted all sorts of falsehoods over the truth. This culminated in an election during which Trump baselessly claimed he had won and, then, that the election was rigged and stolen. As his efforts to get Congress and the Courts to reverse his loss failed, he incited an unprecedented violent assault on Congress itself, hoping to derail the announcement of the Biden/Harris victory. This failed but not without loss of life, mayhem, and damage.
Here is what worked: the institutions of American democracy stayed strong for the most part. Citizens braved the pandemic to vote in unprecedented numbers. State election officials, regardless of political party, faithfully tabulated and reported the results. US courts rejected dozens of phony lawsuits by Trump lawyers seeking to attack the legitimacy of the vote. With some exceptions, most members of Congress affirmed the outcome even if they were personally disappointed.
But challenges remain ahead. Trump energized millions of voters, inducing them to accept conspiracy theories and lies over facts and even science. He validated right wing extremism, which has seen increased activity. As a corollary, extremist violence has spiked, and I envision that right-wing domestic terrorism will rival jihadi terrorism as a homeland security threat (this is occurring in Europe as well). While the Biden Administration will push to defuse tension and build unity and mutual respect among Americans, this will take some time and there will be bumps in the road.
GEOPOLITICS. Donald Trump alienated a number of allies with his disdainful attitude. I fully expect Joe Biden to rebuild relationships with America’s friends and to take a leading role in advancing our mutual security and dem- “Trump energized millions of voters, inducing them to accept conspiracy theories and lies over facts and even science. He validated right wing extremism, which has seen increased activity.” ocratic values. He is a believer in our alliances and has a foreign policy team that has maintained warm relationships overseas. The incoming Administration has indicated they want to convene a summit of democracies which would further strengthen ties.
But I do not think that the new President underestimates the challenges we face. Under President Xi, China has become more aggressive in promoting its political agenda, using economic power, propaganda, and even its military to embed Chinese power in the Pacific region and elsewhere around the globe. We will need to make sure that democracies can safeguard their national security, especially assuring that Chinese companies do not use their subsidized technologies to gain control over the evermore important internet infrastructure, such as 5G. In my personal opinion, that means working cooperatively to foster alternative private sector hardware and software infrastructure that can effectively compete with Chinese firms. I believe we must engage with China but strategically and without illusions.
While Russia is not an economic rival in the way China has been, I’m sure the new Administration appreciates the short-term challenges that Russia poses, and that it will push back, rather than cozying up to Putin as Trump did. We have seen Russian disinformation campaigns target elections in the US and Europe. Recently, authorities discovered a massive Russian government hack into the global supply chain that implanted back door vulnerabilities in thousands of government and private enterprises. This permitted widespread espionage and opened the door to even worse. Biden has called this out and said America will take steps to deter and respond to these activities.
GLOBAL ISSUES. Apart from the foregoing I predict priorities for the new Administration will include global cooperation among a number of fronts: pandemic detection and response; detection and deterrence against cyber intellectual property theft and cyber-attacks; promoting democratic values and standing up for human rights and equality; combatting and mitigating global climate change. These are my best estimates
Michael Chertoff
Michael Chertoff is the Executive Chairman and Co-Founder of The Chertoff Group and the former Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security. He is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of BAE Systems Inc. At Chertoff, Michael provides high-level strategic counsel to corporate and government leaders on a broad range of security issues, from risk identification and prevention to preparedness, response, and recovery. Before heading up the Department of Homeland Security (2005–2009), Michael served as a federal judge on the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.