After Brexit
Written by Anand Menon Photography by Frederick Tubiermont
Last year was like a never-ending episode of Deal or No Deal but the new government has promised Brexit will happen, no matter what, by the end of January 2020. Anand Menon, one of the UK's leading Brexit experts, explores what the immediate fall-out of leaving the EU will look like for the UK, which obstacles will have to be tackled first and the post-Brexit political landscape to which the government, and entire country, will have to adjust.
On 1 February, Brexit will be done. The previous evening, the UK will have ceased to be a member state of the European Union. So far so good. Boris Johnson will have delivered. But then what? Then, briefly put, the real decisions will need to be made. Some of these relate directly or indirectly to the fact of leaving the EU. Others stem from a political context that has changed beyond recognition since the referendum of 2016.
First things first, Brexit will necessitate the negotiation of a new relationship with the EU. Despite the optimism of the Government, this will not be straightforward for a number of reasons. First, the Political Declaration agreed by the UK and the EU stipulates that financial services and fisheries will need to be sorted first. Neither will be easy.
Second, the EU simply does not buy the argument that the fact the UK is aligned with its standards now should make negotiations quicker and easier. As far as Brussels is concerned, it’s not the starting point that matters, but the destination. And British rhetoric about the opportunities offered by divergence from EU rules has not gone unheeded. Member states will almost certainly insist that even a ‘bare bones’ FTA will necessitate some level playing field arrangements.
Finally, the sheer breadth of the relationship – ranging from trade to police and military cooperation militates against a rapid solution if its depth is to be maintained as far as possible.
So far so complicated. Yet in many ways this is the easy bit. Because Brexit also requires us to make some difficult decisions about how we do things at home. What kind of immigration policy do we want? What kind of regulatory standards do we think are appropriate? How should we deal with agriculture and fisheries? What rights, if any, should be enshrined beyond the reach of parliament and how, absent EU law, can this be achieved in our system?
And, of course, there is the thorny question of what Brexit means for the devolution settlement. Not merely in terms of whether there is ‘unfettered’ trade between GB and NI. Nor even of the fate of the UK’s internal market should powers over, for instance, agriculture be devolved to Belfast, Edinburgh and Cardiff. On top of all that there is the issue of the political pressure building for another independence referendum in Scotland.
So Brexit will soon be over, but there will be plenty left to do. The saga will drag on.
Anand Menon
Anand Menon is Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London, and Director of UK in a Changing Europe, the authoritative source for independent research on UK-EU relations. He has written widely on many aspects of EU politics and policy and on UK-EU relations, and is a frequent contributor to the media on matters relating to British relations with the EU.