Labour after Corbyn
Written by Anushka Asthana
The scale of Labour’s defeat in the December general election was such that it begged the questions: was Jeremy Corbyn the problem, a leader the country didn’t want to get behind? Or does the entire party need a shake up to stand any chance of regaining their lost seats in the future? The party will elect a new leader at the beginning of April this year but whether it will be ‘continuity Corbyn’ or a fresh new stance remains to be seen. Anushka Asthana, editor-at-large at the Guardian newspaper, imparts her wisdom on the topic.
The challenge for the Labour Party in 2020 is eye-watering. The party emerged from the general election with just 202 MPs.
To put that in context, the Conservatives have 163 more Westminster politicians - including many representing large swathes of the “red wall” Labour heartlands.
To understand what happened it’s worth looking back at the leaked comments that Labour’s shadow health secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, made to a so-called friend in the run up to Election Day. He said that his journeys across the country painted a picture that was “dire” for Labour - driven by a “combination of Corbyn and Brexit” and particularly bad “outside of the city seats”.
Ashworth said the electoral map had gone topsy-turvy and it wouldn’t surprise him if the party held onto affluent (and young) Canterbury - that had, before 2017, been held by the Tories for so long that it was in the Guinness book of world records - but lose a once rock solid safe Labour seat like Bolsover.
Inside Labour headquarters, this penny had begun to drop in the middle of the campaign.
After a big push within the party towards a second referendum (with many wanting Corbyn to go further still towards remain) it had started to become clear that the key problem in 2019 was actually going to be the leave vote. Brexit supporters across the North and Midlands felt betrayed. Some were attracted to Boris Johnson - with a few lifelong Labour voters describing him to me as “flamboyant” on the doorstep convinced that he was the man to deliver Brexit. Others were not persuaded by the Tories, but chose to stay at home instead.
Then came the second issue identified by Ashworth. It was unquestionable travelling around the country that Corbyn was a difficult sell on the doorstep. Even Corbynista activists in Hartlepool - who were pounding the streets in the dark and cold because of their love for the leader - admitted that voters were just not convinced. In Stoke South, that turned from a marginally held Tory seat to an 11,000 Conservative majority, one voter described him as a “terrorist”, while others were fed up with his position on leaving the EU, which they saw as muddled.
Then in other completely different seats like Winchester where the Liberal Democrats hoped to win over remain-voting liberals, fear about a Corbyn led government stopped wavering Conservatives from deserting Johnson’s party.
Corbyn’s team blame Brexit for defeat, while many remain-supporting MPs blame their leader, but the truth is that both factors were a serious problem in December. That - along with the fact that the party’s losses in the North were not just driven by defectors but others staying at home - means that I think this defeat is more like the Tories in 2005 than 1997.
With Brexit and Corbyn gone, a new leader and a new start provides a chance to rebuild the party - and perhaps take advantage of disillusionment with the Conservatives among liberal voters. But the problem they face - whoever is leader - is that the deep divisions between leave and remain voters that has caused Labour’s electoral coalition to fracture go much deeper than Brexit.
This split is driven by values as one part of Labour’s vote becomes more liberal and internationalist, having benefited from economic growth concentrated in more urban areas, while others – outside of the major cities – are driven by increasingly socially conservative views.
But - however popular Johnson seems now - who knows what will happen to the economy as Britain leaves the EU or whether Johnson’s promises to the North and Midlands will actually bear fruit?
Labour will hope that a progressive economic argument focused on workers’ rights in the world of a more insecure gig economy could start to bridge the divide.
It’s clear there is a mountain to climb in England and Wales - and the task in Scotland is perhaps even more daunting - but five years is an age in politics, with events far beyond any politicians’ control.
Anushka Asthana
Anushka Asthana is editor-at-large at the Guardian and presenter of the paper’s daily podcast Today in Focus. She is also co-presenter of ITV’s flagship weekly current affairs programme Peston, and a regular presenter of the Week in Westminster for BBC Radio 4.