View from The States
Written by Justin Cooper Photography by Collin Armstrong
The UK, along with the rest of the world, will watch as the US prepares for its 59th presidential election on the 3rd of November this year. President Trump’s politics, military decisions and tweets make global headlines every day but, as political advisor and commentator Justin Cooper reminds us, it is impossible to tell how the next year of US politics will play out. There are a few things, however, we know for sure.
The race has begun in earnest for the White House and by this time next year we will have just inaugurated the next President of the United States. But who will it be?
In short, it is still far too early to tell. Data suggests President Trump has lost some support among women and moderates, but he has strengthened other parts of his base. Meanwhile, the Democrats are struggling to choose their candidate, with the possibility that the race could go right down to the wire when the Democratic Convention is held in mid-July.
A lot can happen in the run up to a general election; momentum will wax and wane and domestic and world events, with the capacity to influence the course of the election, will occur.
There is one thing we can be sure of as we progress through the primaries, caucuses, conventions and campaigns proper: maths matter.
Firstly, as we move through the Democratic primaries, who underperforms or drops out may be more important than who wins at any particular stage. When players falter and leave the race, where their votes go and which states are in play will have direct consequences for who ultimately prevails.
“‘The big question for the election is whether voters will decide it is about change or more of the same.’ ”
Secondly, states which hold their primaries early will alter the momentum of the campaign, but it is the big states that will still have the greatest impact as they deliver the greatest number of delegates for the conventions. Mike Bloomberg’s campaign, in particular, is focused on this with the expectation he may miss some of the early primaries in order to focus on those with the greatest number of votes.
Then we come to the general election itself on November 3rd. We should remember that we do not have a conventional national election in the US, so the national polls should be taken with something of a pinch of salt. That was a lesson we were reminded of again in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the greater number of votes, but lost the electoral college. Ultimately that is all that matters.
The big question for the election is whether voters will decide it is about change or more of the same. In both primaries and national votes, we have a modern track record of picking change candidates who are not the most obviously qualified, best known choices at the outset. Carter beat Ford in 1976; Reagan beat H W Bush in the 1980 primary and went on to win the Presidency against Carter; Bill Clinton beat President Bush in 1992; G W Bush beat Gore in 2000; and President Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the primary and won against McCain in the election of 2008.
President Trump himself is perhaps the most obvious example. An outsider who ran on a ticket of shaking up Washington, he beat a slew of Republicans in the primaries and shocked Hillary Clinton last time around. The question is whether he can still claim the change mantle this time around or whether there is a change candidate amongst those running to be the Democratic nominee who can truly take him on. And what does change look like in 2020? A fresh-faced, younger candidate or someone with experience of governing? This is the central question that will most likely frame the campaign.
In terms of public votes, James Carville’s mantra, “it’s the economy, stupid”, may be more prescient than opinions about presidential candidates. Personal economics often proves to be a more important factor when it comes to casting votes. If you have a job and you didn’t before, if you have more security in your job than before, if you are working in a record high stock market, will you vote for change? The answers to these questions will become more and more clear as the year progresses.
At this stage, only two things appear to be certain.
Firstly, the US will go to the polls on Tuesday 3rd November. We may well know which way they have voted by the following morning – but then again we may not.
Which brings us to the second certainty. That while 2020 promises to be a year of political uncertainty for the US, it sure isn’t going to be dull.
Justin Cooper
Justin Cooper is Founder and CEO of Foxcroft Strategy Group LLC. He has provided strategic counsel to some of the world’s most notable individuals, including President Bill Clinton, and organizations from the White House to Fortune 50 corporations. He has a unique background and a wealth of experience in advising clients on the inner workings of business, government, public policy and philanthropy.