#reshuffle shows that you underestimate this Vote Leave government at your peril
Towards the end of last year, political watchers and commentators made the mistake of underestimating Boris Johnson and his political team.
As he lost vote after vote in the House of Commons, many thought the wheels were coming off the Boris bandwagon. Events were to prove them wrong. The day-to-day difficulties masked the broader strategic rigour. It was his team’s capacity to focus on the signal rather than the noise that delivered the Prime Minister a sizeable majority - a majority that means he can expect to be in Downing Street for at least a full parliamentary term, maybe more.
Now, however, many are making the mistake of underestimating the Prime Minister and his team once again. They expect the bold promises about ‘levelling up’ the country to go unmet and eagerly anticipate the Conservatives turning their backs on the left behind towns that delivered them their majority.
This analysis overlooks two things.
Firstly, the new Conservative majority was not formed overnight. The party’s shift towards what may be termed ‘Blue Collar Conservatism’ is a decisive strategic move that has been long in the making. It was taken up in earnest by Theresa May and completed by Boris Johnson. Having completed that journey, the government is determined to embed the new reality.
That means keeping a laser-like focus on the people that delivered electoral success – particularly people living in traditional Labour heartlands in the Midlands and North of England.
Second, one of the animating features of the new wave of political movements – whether President Trump’s success in the US or the Leave campaign in the UK (led, of course, by the Prime Minister’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings) – is a widespread belief that politicians too often go back on their promises. Delivering what was promised during the campaign has therefore become more important than ever before.
In 2020 then, Boris Johnson and his team will maintain a relentless focus on delivering – and on being seen to deliver – for the people who make up the new Conservative coalition. The ‘permanent campaign’ – where the line between campaigning and governing becomes increasingly blurred – is back. This is why Mr Cummings and others have the government’s communications and press office teams in their sights. They know that winning the communications war is half the battle. So while Boris Johnson has promised no more elections or referendums in 2020, the political campaigning will certainly go on.
We will hear much more about investment in the NHS – a public priority and something that Number Ten knows the Prime Minister will be judged by due to the commitments he made during the referendum campaign. Similarly, spending will be ramped up on the police, schools and infrastructure projects – particularly as they impact on those left behind towns.
To secure some quick wins, we can expect a focus on regenerating high streets by slashing business rates and restoring local transport connections. The age of austerity will be over as borrowing to invest becomes the norm, and the Treasury rips up the existing spending rules to allow greater investment to be targeted at parts of the country where productivity is low and economic activity weak.
Delivering this agenda will mean some structural change too. Number Ten is serious about moving parts of government out of London, establishing a greater presence in some of these communities. At the same time, the Centre – Number Ten and the Cabinet Office – will take greater overall control in order to focus all areas of the system on delivery. This is likely to be overseen by the new de facto Deputy Prime Minister Michael Gove, the Chief Operating Officer to Boris Johnson’s CEO, who will also be the driving force behind the next phase of Brexit talks.
While relations between the two men have been tense in recent years, they have shown what they can do when they work together. And sources argue that few ministers have shown themselves to be as adept at getting things done as the former education secretary.
Many credit the line ‘Get Brexit Done’ with delivering the Conservatives’ election victory, but the second half of the slogan ‘Unleash Britain’s Potential’ was a vital part of the message too. Brexit itself was not, and is not, enough. The Prime Minister offered an optimistic vision of the country Britain could become once Brexit was finally delivered. He knows that it’s on his ability to turn that vision into reality that he will ultimately be judged.
The Prime Minister sees this as a ten-year programme of reform. That’s why we will hear a lot about a ‘decade of renewal’, as the government seeks to manage public expectations and draw the battle lines for the next general election even now. They know that turning around the fortunes of Britain’s forgotten towns will be a long haul.
But commentators underestimate Boris Johnson and his government’s determination to deliver this agenda at their peril.
Written by Chris Wilkins, Managing Partner at Audley