Local elections show it’s all to play for in British politics
Trouble for the Conservatives, hope for Labour, and a comeback for the Lib Dems. But what does this mean for the general election? Rolf Merchants highlights five key takeaways that have emerged from the ballot box.
As the prime minister walked into Westminster Abbey on Saturday, he must have been thankful to have the mother-of-all-distractions from his party’s losses at the local elections. For Rishi Sunak, the Coronation of His Majesty King Charles III was fortunately timed, sweeping away media attention from politics.
Even political obsessives would have to admit the weekend’s celebrations were more interesting than pouring over the results of the council elections in England that took place on May 5th. But those looking for signs of where the electorate’s mind is, with a general election no more than 18 months away, were probably disappointed. There was nothing earth-shattering or narrative-busting within.
By and large, the results confirmed that the Conservatives are in trouble after numerous scandals and strategic missteps, and Labour, though ahead in the polls, is not coasting towards government. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are making something of a comeback and the Green Party is becoming a local political force of note.
Zooming into the results in different parts of the country, we can see how these bigger trends played out at a local level.
Commuter belting
This was Rishi Sunak’s first electoral test since becoming prime minister last year. Top Tories must have been wincing as the losses gained over the course of Friday afternoon.
The Conservatives will be worried about where they were losing councillors. Many of the biggest swings away from them were in leafy suburbs and London’s commuter towns. They have been archetypal Tory heartlands for generations.
To lose control of councils such as Maidenhead, Hertsmere, Dacorum, Hertfordshire, Surrey Heath, and Tonbridge & Malling, most of which have been Tory-run for 20 years if not longer, is a clear concern.
Labour made some gains in these areas, but it was largely the Liberal Democrats who profited, which has given rise to the worry among Conservative circles that they will be fighting the next general election on two fronts.
Rebuilding the red wall
Ever since the 2019 general election, where Labour lost numerous seats in the north of England, the party has been focused on regaining support in the so-called ‘red wall’.
The best results for Labour were in the Midlands, where they won convincingly in East Staffordshire, Amber Valley, Broxtowe and Erewash.
Labour also made substantial ground in Stoke, which is seen as a swing city in Parliamentary elections, although their gains here were at the expense of local independents, rather than Conservatives. Further north, Labour seized control of Blackpool, Middlesbrough, and West Lancashire, though again this was by chiseling out independents rather than Tories. This implies the Conservative vote held up relatively well in some parts of the Red Wall.
Victories in Kent – Dover, Medway and Thanet – will have given more cheer for Sir Keir Starmer. The same can be said of Swindon, which Labour last held in 2000. It is important to remember that Labour’s chances of victory in the next general election depend on winning in the south of England as much as the north.
Lib Dems look west
The southwest of England always used to be fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats. Before the party was virtually wiped out in the 2015 general election, the Lib Dems had numerous MPs in the West Country. It was therefore not a great surprise that they made a strong showing in these areas at the council level, with victories in Mid Devon, South Hams and Bath at the expense of the Conservatives.
The striking gains in Stratford-upon-Avon and West Berkshire will give rise to the belief that the Liberal Democrats are back as an effective local-level political machine. The fear for the Tories is that this will begin to translate into national politics and chip away at their recent dominance of the southwest.
Rise of the ‘anti-growth coalition’ ?
One of the more remarkable results was the Green Party winning Mid Suffolk Council. Part of their success is simply explained as being anti-Tory, but the Greens’ commitment to opposing new developments in the area has helped them a great deal. This environment-first stance taps into a long-standing ‘small-c conservatism’ that exists in the English countryside. Combined with public support for Net Zero policies, it is possible to see the Greens gain more electoral ground.
This anti-development stance was at the core of much of the Lib Dems’ campaigning too. As James Kirkup wrote, “the defining feature of Lib Demmery at the local elections has been aggressive Nimbyism.” Local opposition to development is part of what former prime minister Liz Truss meant by the ‘anti-growth coalition’ during her short term in office.
The lack of new homes and infrastructure is pointed to as one of, if not the most, critical issue holding Britain’s economy back. This view is shared by think tankers, economists and media commentators from all political persuasions. How suburban and rural England is developed is shaping up to be a key question for the next general election.
All to play for
For Sir Keir Starmer, Leader of the Opposition, these elections were the chance to build the Labour narrative of increasing momentum towards government. Naturally, he was quick to say the results show Labour is well on its way to power.
However, Britain’s master psephologists concluded that this round of local elections does not definitively point to a Labour victory. That will give Sir Kier cause for concern and offers the Conservatives crumbs of comfort.
It is easy to overanalyse and get overexcited about local elections. They are an important part of our democracy, but it is wrong to think they will be replicated when the country chooses its Members of Parliament in 2024. Council elections are often about hyper-local issues (planning, potholes, and policing) and voter turnout is much lower than in a general election.
After 13 years as the governing party, things do look tough for the Conservatives on the electoral battlefield. With Labour steadily gaining strength and a Lib Dem resurgence on the cards, the Tories might find themselves in a deadly pincer.
The next general election is a year away. That is an eon in political terms. So for all the talk of hung parliaments and coalitions, we are still an awfully long way from that.
There’s plenty more electioneering to enjoy. Lucky us!
By Rolf, Director, Audley