Weekend Box: Ron Declining, Germany Tries Cannabis & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
Image credit/Flickr/ Gage Skidmore
RON DECLINING
It was meant to be his big debut on the other side of the pond; the other side of the pond to him, that is, being Governor of Florida. However, Ron DeSantis’ recent underwhelming performance to Britain’s major firms may be the latest sign that this hopeful for US president in 2024 has run out of steam.
Only a few months ago, in December, DeSantis boasted a 23-point lead on former Republican president Donald Trump in a poll of potential nominees in next year’s US elections. Yet in short time his momentum has rapidly dissipated, in part due to effective strategic manoeuvres from the Trump campaign but also due to his apparent lack of statesman qualities. Speaking to Politico in April, former Michigan Representative David Trott acknowledged DeSantis’ skill in picking “what issues and hot buttons he needs to press to advance his political ambitions,” but also said that his arrogance means he lacks the “fundamental skill” a real leader needs: likability.
Ironic, considering the “very stable genius” he’s up against. But Trott’s analysis was borne out by the reactions of British business leaders to DeSantis in last Friday’s meeting. Variously described as looking “spent,” “bored,” and as staring at his feet, DeSantis seems to have deflated his own efforts to maintain strong relations with one of his state’s top business partners and to regain momentum against Trump.
He made one friend on his trip, however, in the form of Business Secretary and fellow culture warrior Kemi Badenoch. DeSantis praised her for challenging “the woke,” perhaps recognising that she also knows what buttons to press. Yet, as his fellow Republicans even begin to tire of this crusade, his talent for stoking the flames may not be enough to make up for his lack of “likability” and could become his Achilles heel.
Image credit/Flickr/ Scott Beale- Laughing Squid
NOT THE LAND OF MILKEN HONEY
This week, the Milken Institute held its 26th annual conference in Beverly Hills, California. The conference is designed to be a series of conversations focused on the big global issues of the day, matching the institute’s mission to create the conditions for every human being on earth to live a meaningful life.
As with every year, economics, healthcare, tech, capital deployment and development finance dominated the agenda. But with the elite of the American financial industry in attendance, the state of the US banking system was an underlying theme at this year’s edition. Indeed, the FT and Bloomberg reported on the gloomy vibe at Milken.
During the opening session of the conference, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday she expects more weaknesses to be exposed in the banking sector. This came only hours after First Republic Bank was rescued by JP Morgan.
Executives’ worries were varied: is there a systemic problem with US regional banking? What’s going to happen to commercial real estate? Will we see a new wave of tightening regulation?
By far the biggest question was whether a recession in the US is on the cards. Opinion was divided – which was enough to give the impression that confidence in the American economy is distinctly lacking.
A more positive theme was AI. Rather than expressing fear and doubt, delegates and speakers focused on the opportunities AI is presenting. But not all sectors are going to be affected. One retailer pointed out that for all its genius, ChatGPT can’t make a skincare product.
There was much more on the agenda besides. With 600 speakers, Milken provides hugely rich insights. If you’re interested, every session is available to watch online via this link.
GERMANY TRIES CANNABIS
Germany is preparing to conduct Europe’s biggest experiment in creating a legalised cannabis market, partially fulfilling a policy flagged by the ruling Social Democrats, Greens, and liberal Free Democrats in their coalition agreement last year. Under Health Minister Karl Lauterbach’s scheme, by 2024 Germans over 18 will be permitted to grow up to three plants each and possess up to 25g of cannabis for personal consumption.
Additionally, non-profit ‘cannabis clubs’ that will farm and distribute up to 50g a month to fee-paying members will be set up in ‘model regions’ and monitored over a period of five years. This monitoring will test the produce, ensure that the clubs refrain from advertising or selling to underage users, and check for addiction or social problems stemming from the local schemes.
Lauterbach and his coalition allies argue that laws to date have failed to deter consumption while creating a black market that is run by criminals selling ever stronger strains that cause addiction and psychosis in some users. Original plans went further, including licensed premises selling the product across the country. They were revised after pressure to comply with EU law, which bans the cultivation, sale and consumption of cannabis. The scheme still pushes the envelope legally but it is no longer a full-scale, tax-raising legalisation of the market.
Less than a decade ago, over two-thirds of Germans disagreed that adults ‘should be able to obtain cannabis in a legal and regulated manner’, but by 2021 a clear majority agreed. Stated users remain a minority at some 5.4% of the adult population, but among 18–34-year-olds it’s 17%, and in line with its neighbours the trend is upward. While the majority may be recreational users, others seek the drug for medicinal purposes and may welcome the change from current laws that only allow regulated supply for seriously ill patients who ‘have no therapeutic alternative’. Decriminalisation may well see the number of users get higher...
Credit: Flickr/Asparagirl
HOLLYWOOD IN A WRITE PICKLE
As of Tuesday this week, 11,500 members of the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA) took to the picket line for the first time in 15 years. The strike comes as Hollywood writers demand requisite compensation, minimum staffing guidelines, streaming-based residuals (think royalties), and regulations surrounding AI-driven redundancy from big studios such as Disney, ABC and Netflix.
Shows demanding up-to-the-minute pithy punchlines for instance, the famed Late Night Shows (Fallon, Colbert, Kimmel and Meyers) have been the worst hit, with episodes 'going dark’ this Tuesday night. Streaming services are instead showing re-runs. However, as Tim Barnes, WGA writer and comedian told the BBC, these shows will likely re-air if the strikes go on for longer than a few months, with hosts having to improvise their own jokes and scheduled segments.
The last strike, lasting over 100 days, led to the rise of ‘reality TV’. Just think how much better off we all are for that kind of spontaneity on TV... Barnes admitted that to most, Hollywood writing strikes might sound like a ’tickle fight at the opera’ but the reality is people’s livelihoods are at stake as people struggle with the costs of living in cities like LA and New York, where most TV and film is made. After all, the WGA is asking for less than 2% of Hollywood’s profits.
Stephen Colbert, a luminary of Late Night TV, defended the WGA in his final appearance on Monday saying, ‘I support collective bargaining...unions are the reason we have weekends and by extension TGI Fridays’. Although jovial, support for writers from their hosts has been consistent across the board, with many Late Night and Daytime TV hosts endorsing them on-air.
In 2007, many of the same hosts financially supported their writers paying them out of their own wages. Reportedly, Meyers on Tuesday followed suit, negotiating on behalf of his writers to avoid a planned payment pause by NBC.
We are yet to see the impact of these strikes on TV shows and blockbusters as most scripts are written months in advance. But given the 007 sequel ‘Quantum of Solace’ was written during the last strike of 2007 - to famously bad reviews - who knows what disastrous implications this may have. For the sake of cinema, one hopes some reconciliation is reached.
ALONE IN THE WORLD
Dr Vivek Murthy, the US surgeon general has put the ‘epidemic of loneliness and isolation’ at the top of his agenda with a new framework to rebuild social connection and community in America. Dr. Murthy argues that loneliness is “more than just a bad feeling” and must be treated as a public health threat as serious as obesity or drug abuse. “When people are socially disconnected, their risk of anxiety and depression increases. So does their risk of heart disease (29 percent), dementia (50 percent), and stroke (32 percent).” Aside from the health impacts (which Murthy claims are similar to that caused by smoking 15 cigarettes a day), social isolation is associated with diminished productivity and civic engagement, and is found to make people ‘more fearful and aggressive’.
At the core of Murthy’s framework is strengthening social infrastructure to bring people together and reassessing our relationship with technology. He also calls on people to spend 15 minutes each day speaking to people they know, or introducing themselves to people in their community.
However, this epidemic of loneliness is not unique to the US. In the UK 3.3 million people are lonely all or most of the time (‘chronically lonely’) and this has only increased since 2020. Former Secretary of State, William Hague addressed this in The Times this week, arguing that the plummeting levels of social participation and volunteering, particularly among young people, will have an incalculable impact on social cohesion and mobility. The government has taken steps to address this with the launch of the National Citizen Service under Prime Minister David Cameron, a five-year government strategy (of which we are in the four year), and more recently a £30 million “Know Your Neighbourhood” fund to create volunteering opportunities and help reduce loneliness. Indeed, one of the major themes of the Coronation this weekend is volunteering. The King is encouraging members of the public to take up opportunities to volunteer through The Big Help Out app on May 8th, which is supported by over 1,500 charities. With falling levels of participation and volunteering, this is a short-term fix for a long-term problem, and as Hague and Dr. Murthy argue, it might be time for politicians to wake up.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.