What does Rishi’s reshuffle mean for the Tory Party?
Image Credit: Flickr/ No10
On Monday the prime minister carried out a dramatic ministerial reshuffle which saw the shocking return of ex-PM David Cameron. Chris Wilkins, Audley CEO and former Head of Strategy at No10 sets out what this reshuffle means for a divided Conservative Party.
How to interpret the government reshuffle? A number of people have been in touch to ask this question. I think there are a couple of points to make.
The first is that it means the rather silly ‘change’ strategy launched by PM Rishi Sunak just a few weeks ago at the conference in Manchester is dead. As I wrote at the time, it was an unconvincing pitch for a prime minister who is a pretty conventional Conservative. It was also one that angered the former PM David Cameron and those around him. They argued that Sunak should be bringing the Conservative family together rather than trying to create dividing lines within his own party. With David Cameron’s return to government as Foreign Secretary that rift has clearly been healed. Ditching the peculiar strategy was the price the PM had to pay. Thank goodness for that.
The second point is that Sunak clearly recognises how unlikely it is that the Conservatives will win the next general election. His reshuffle was all about putting in place a government that’s interested in governing rather than campaigning. The return of grown-ups such as David Cameron (a man of great governing experience whatever your views of him), the placement of sensible and competent ministers in key roles (James Cleverly at the Home Office represents a huge upgrade on what went before) and the promotion of real talent (see for example Laura Trott as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and Victoria Atkins as the new Secretary of State for Health) mean the PM recognises the Conservative Party’s best hope is to act as good stewards of the government for the next 12 months. It might minimise the scale of defeat. It also allows him to present Labour as a risk – something that could yet be an effective strategy for a surprise result if the economy picks-up and Keir Starmer’s party descends into the kind of ill-discipline that has plagued it in the past. Such a result remains a long-shot – particularly as the Conservatives need to win a majority to form the next government where Labour, who would be propped up by any combination of the Liberal Democrats and Nationalists, do not. But a period of calm competence is the best strategy the Conservatives have got.
The moves also present a different face of the Tory Party to the country. In the short-term it’s one that is more acceptable to the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ in the South of England where the Liberal Democrats are mounting a real challenge. But in the long-term, it’s one that means the future of Conservatism doesn’t have to lie in polarising culture wars. A more moderate style of Conservatism may yet emerge to challenge those who would drag the party down the rabbit hole of the right. In this way, Sunak is mimicking the role played by Michael Howard in 2003-05. He picked up a demoralised party after the chaos of the Iain Duncan Smith years and carefully created the conditions for David Cameron to emerge as a leader who could drag the party back to government. Howard did his party a service then. With this reshuffle, Sunak has done the same.
That means everything that happened yesterday is to be welcomed. There are certainly drawbacks and pitfalls. David Cameron’s brand and record is not without its problems (particularly when it comes to foreign affairs). Labour will have a field day and tie the PM to ’13 years of Conservative chaos’. And Suella and her supporters are unlikely to go gently into the good night.
But on balance, this was a good day for Rishi Sunak. We’ve been on some detours, but he has now chosen the right road. The Conservatives’ best hope has long been to take the drama out of British politics and focus on a period of good, competent government. It may not save them but it’s the best strategy they’ve got. And more than that, for the country – and for all those who are struggling with the cost of living or feeling anxious and insecure – it just happens to be the right thing to do too.
By Chris Wilkins, CEO of Audley.