Weekend Box: Ukraine’s Europe Hopes, Wrecks to Riches & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
Image credit/Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken on Flickr/License
UKRAINE’S EUROPE HOPES
This week the European Commission confirmed that Ukraine and Moldova should continue their application to join the EU. EC President Ursula Von der Leyen announced this on a visit to Kyiv demonstrating her personal commitment to Ukraine and EU expansion.
While there she bolstered a weary President Zelensky and told the Ukrainian parliament: “You are teaching to all of us the true meaning of Europe.” The trip followed one last summer where Ukraine was given seven steps to work on before membership negotiations could progress, focused on the rule of law, tackling corruption, and protecting minority rights. The EC progress report praised them for completing four counts while saying there was more to do on three: establishing an anti-corruption bureau, legislating to limit the power of oligarchs, and protecting minorities.
Demand to join the EU is strong in Ukraine, dating back to the pro-EU Maidan protests of 2014. These triggered the first Russian invasion in Crimea, intended to stem Ukraine’s movement towards European democracy and away from Russian influence and autocracy.
Yet as the conflict freezes to stalemate, US support for Ukraine has waned, with the current administration distracted by the Gaza conflict and Republican pre-election politics increasingly challenging US commitments to Ukraine. The Commission has realised that maintaining a friendly buffer between the EU and a hostile Russia will require huge immediate support and a viable runway to achieve membership within the next decade or so.
But just as Ukraine has to make meaningful changes to qualify for membership, the EU must reform itself to allow for enlargement eastwards. A larger bloc will mean less power and money for current members. Entitlements, policies, and budgets will have to change. Perspectives differ and ‘enlargement fatigue’ exists. Difficult internal negotiations lie ahead.
AFGHAN REFUGEES: NOWHERE TO CALL HOME
With global tensions at boiling point, the plight of Afghan refugees has seemingly taken a backseat. Following a decision made by the Pakistani government to expel more than 1.5m allegedly undocumented Afghan refugees, hundreds and thousands of people have been forced into the unknown, in what can only be described as a humanitarian disaster. Many of these refugees have never set foot in Afghanistan, with children making up 60% of returning Afghans.
Pakistan was home to about four million Afghans, who have arrived in waves from the conflict-battered region since the Soviet invasion in 1979. The most recent wave was triggered when the Taliban regained power in 2021, 20 years after being overthrown by Western forces. Afghanistan is currently considered an unsafe country by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), with more than half of its population dependent on humanitarian aid.
With Pakistan preparing for an election in February, Afghans have become a scapegoat for the country’s economic woes and are being blamed for a series of suicide bomb attacks on the government (although presently there is no evidence to support this claim). However, the primary cause of this is a deterioration in relations between Pakistan and the Taliban, who Islamabad has covertly supported in the past.
In the fight against terrorism, many argue that this mass exodus could contribute to more terrorism, with Afghans living in desperate conditions even more susceptible to radicalisation. With the Taliban and Pakistan unlikely to build any bridges at this stage and no countries leaping to the Afghans’ aid, thousands will make the arduous journey back to the country they once fled. Minorities, journalists, and women are most at risk on their return.
Image credit/Dritan Mardodaj/License
OUTRAGE AT CATALONIA
Six years after a bid for Catalonia’s independence ended in police violence and the region’s leader entering exile, a proposed amnesty for separatists has led to a new eruption of civil unrest in Spain.
A series of protests have taken place across the country this week against acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's proposed amnesty law for those involved in the 2017 Catalonian independence referendum. The prime minister argues this is the “only way” to assure the Catalonian parties back a new government led by him, after July’s general election saw neither Spain’s Left nor Right gain enough seats to govern.
While their backing would enable his coalition of the Socialist Party and the left-wing Sumar alliance to form a working majority, his vocal support of the amnesty saw protesters, consisting mainly of individuals linked to the far-right party Vox, taking to the streets on Sunday.
Vox leader Santiago Abascal is one of an increasing number of people who have attended protests outside the headquarters of Sanchez’s Socialist Party. On Tuesday night, these protests saw 29 police and 10 demonstrators sustaining injuries.
A point of contention for protesters is what the amnesty means with regards to Carles Puigdemont, the former leader of Catalonia’s regional government who entered self-imposed exile after the region’s 2017 independence vote was banned. In September, Puigdemont demanded an amnesty for Catalan separatists involved in the referendum. Protesters argue that Prime Minister Sánchez is showing willingness to negotiate with those who would “break up” Spain.
However, after Catalonia’s two main pro-independence parties blocked the conservative People’s Party from taking power in late September, frustrating its attempts to form a government despite having won the most seats in July’s election, winning the separatists’ support seems to be the only way for the prime minister to avoid another election in January.
SELF-DRIVING BUSES GET A ROAD TEST
This week the British government announced plans to bring forward legislation that will foster the development of self-driving vehicles. The immediate impact of such a bill coming into law will be to expand the testing of autonomous buses, delivery vehicles, and agricultural machinery.
The long-term benefits of safe and reliable autonomous vehicles are thought to be enormous. Cutting out fatal human error on the roads is an obvious benefit. In Great Britain in 2022, nearly 1,700 people died in car accidents and a further 28,000 were seriously injured.
The government estimates the UK self-driving vehicle market could be worth up to £42bn and create 38,000 skilled jobs by 2035. Much of the commercial gain can be seen by improving the efficiency of road haulage, as vehicles can drive at optimal times to reduce time wasted in traffic and will be able to drive much closer to one another (much like a train) thereby maximising road space.
British autonomous vehicle technology companies are starting to emerge as serious players. In January, Oxbotica raised $140m to further its development of driverless vehicle software, the brain of any automated vehicle.
One obvious pitfall the UK government will want to avoid is rolling out testing on busy roads too hastily. A number of dangerous mishaps on the roads of San Franciso, described as the “petri dish” of driverless vehicles, have demonstrated the risks of not taking a safety-first approach.
New data shows (albeit with a small sample) that self-driving vehicles generate significantly fewer insurance claims than their human-controlled equivalents. As economist Alex Tabarrok said this week, “it is clear that autonomous vehicles are happening. I predict that some of my grandchildren will never learn to drive and their kids won't be allowed to drive.”
FROM WRECKS TO RICHES
This week Colombia’s government announced it would accelerate the recovery of the 'Holy Grail of shipwrecks,' the San Jose galleon, with a potential $16 billion of loot to be reclaimed.
The ship was transporting porcelain, silver, emeralds, and gold coins from the Americas back to Spain during the War of Spanish Succession when it sank after a battle with the British Navy in 1708. All but 11 of its 600 crew were lost, as was the bounty aboard, until now. President Gustavo Petro this week announced he was determined to bring the ship up before his term in office ends in 2026 and has told his team to ‘pick up the pace.’
According to most accounts, the Colombian government discovered the ship’s location in 2015, sharing a video that showed the treasure remarkably intact. The coordinates of the wreck haven’t been publicly disclosed, and were the subject of a brief controversy in October as reports emerged they had been lost. However, even with this clerical error resolved, this is far from the only controversy surrounding the wreck that Colombia is contending with.
An American ocean retrieval company also claims to have discovered its location far earlier, in 1981. They maintain that these coordinates were given to the Colombian government in exchange for half the treasure on retrieval. The company is now suing Colombia for $10 billion, half the fortune they’d be owed according to the original deal. Spain and the indigenous Qhara Qhara nation of Bolivia, who claim the Spanish exploited their people in the mining that amassed the ship’s treasures, both also claim ownership of the bounty on the San Jose.
With $16 billion up for grabs, and 3,100 ft of water depth to navigate, one thing’s certain - this recovery will be far from plain sailing.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.