2024 look ahead: 5 sink or swim issues for Rishi Sunak
Image credit: Flickr: Lauren Hurley / No10 Downing
It is no secret that 2024 will be Rishi Sunak’s toughest yet. With an election earmarked for later this year, Lucy Thompson dives into the top 5 ‘sink or swim’ issues for the Prime Minister.
2024 is the year of choice for Britain’s electorate. With the Prime Minister signalling an Autumn election, the British public will finally decide whether to stick with the Conservatives or twist with Labour’s promise of ‘national renewal’.
Aside from the familiar, but stubborn issues of high inflation and interest rates, striking unions, and the enduring crisis that is the NHS, this year is set to be Rishi Sunak’s toughest yet.
Trying to guess what’s going to happen in the world is as difficult as ever, but there are five clear issues this year which could spell electoral success or failure for the Conservatives as they scramble to close Labour’s polling lead.
1. Two, three, four elections?
The Prime Minister is off to a bumpy start to the year with two electoral tests in Wellingborough and Kingswood which will likely be on the same day in February. By-elections are often seen as a weathervane for the nationwide contest, they consume precious airtime and if Sunak adds any losses to the four in 2023, Tory morale and party perception will be at a low.
Wellingborough, a bellwether seat that turned Tory after Harold Wilson’s premiership, looks less promising for the Tories given the embarrassing circumstances around it. MP Peter Bone was recalled following claims of bullying and sexual misconduct, but instead of the party pursuing a fresh start in the constituency, his girlfriend Helen Harrison (whom the PM has not endorsed) will be standing in his place.
The Conservatives have more of a chance of defending their Kingswood seat, which was left by Chris Skidmore, but whoever wins will not be in position for long before the boundary changes abolish the seat. And that’s not all for Rishi Sunak. Due to the alleged bad behaviour of Pensions Minister Paul Maynard and Conservative-turned-Independent MP Scott Benton, we could see another two by-elections in Blackpool North and Cleveleys, and Blackpool South.
He will also face the local elections on May 2nd and if the party’s performance is as bad as 2023, where the Conservatives suffered losses in key battlegrounds, this will be another dent on morale, and potentially electoral prospects.
2. Mortgage timebomb
The new year began with some good news for homeowners with fixed mortgage rates edging down, but a surge in mortgage costs before the local elections will pose a huge problem for the Conservatives.
Even if the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates in 2024, Britons will still facing a £19bn increase in higher mortgage costs between now and the end of 2025 as current deals expire. Up to 1.5m households are expected to reach the end of cheaper deals in 2024 – with an increase in annual housing costs of about £1,800 for the typical family. This could be a financial timebomb for the Tories.
Unsurprisingly Labour is weaponsing this, giving Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget as one reason as to why Britons will head to the polls with less money in their pockets. The Lib Dems are adding to this with their emphasis on the emergence of the ‘squeezed middle’. While the Tories will point to burden-easing measures such as the 10bn cut to national insurance and the halving of inflation, households are suffering, and Sunak needs a new narrative that reasserts his party’s economic competence and that is why the next point is so important…
3. Last chance budget
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has announced that the next government budget will take place on March 6 and is his last chance to throw in the ring voter-friendly policies e.g a tax cut before the election.
The budget is on the early side, rather than in the second or third week of March (where Conservative budgets historically tend to fall) and tactically that is likely to give more time for policies to mature and hopefully improve the economy. It has also prompted Labour to ready its manifesto for February 8th and that could have some bearing.
Jeremy Hunt and Sunak’s narrative is that the economy is turning and recent comments from the Prime Minister about wanting to cut taxes for working people has set up the possibility of an income tax cut. A cut to the 20p basic rate and a rise in the threshold at which the 40p rate kicks in are among the options.
It is unclear whether these signals mean that a cut to Inheritance Tax, which would be hugely popular among backbenchers and would create some distance with Labour (who plan to reverse it), is off the cards. Budgets are unlikely to please all, but this will be a crucial milestone which could set the election course.
Image Credit: Flickr: Rory Arnold / No10 Downing Street
4. Small boats: slow rather than stop
This month James Cleverly perhaps dug his own grave with his aim to reduce the number of people crossing the Channel on small boats to “zero” in 2024. An aim that No10 has refused to confirm.
While Rishi Sunak’s simplistic, but risky slogan ‘“STOP THE BOATS” is etched into the minds of many, small boat crossings are expected to rise in the summer months (as they tend to). Given no flights have taken off yet and with the Rwanda Bill mired in legal troubles, we will likely see a slow of the boats at most.
This Bill continues to be a source of huge division in the party over whether the bill goes far enough. With infighting, three resignations and 60 MPs defying the Prime Minister, Sunak’s authority has been undermined and it does not give the appearance of a coherent party or a credible leadership. While the Bill will still likely pass, if it does reach the House of Lords, it will be dogged by amendments and its future is as uncertain as ever.
Slowing the boats is rather different to stopping and a failure to make good on his promise and pass the bill will put Sunak in hot water with Conservative supporters who consider immigration the top issue. It could even prompt him to call the election.
5. The global shift to the right
Beyond the UK, this is the year for elections with people in more than 70 countries worldwide heading to the polls and some of which could have a bearing on our general election. In early June, the European elections will be held to fill the 705 seats of the only directly elected EU body. While some may argue that post-Brexit it will have no bearing on the UK at all, a resurgence of the right could embolden right-wing voters here.
There have been gains for far-right parties in Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Austria, France and Germany in recent elections, and polls predict strong results for the two most right-leaning groups in the European Parliament.
In the UK, the challenge that Reforms pose and their potential to split the right-wing vote in key seats, with polling of as much as 11% in recent surveys, is not to be overlooked. The aforementioned by-election Wellingborough, which has high levels of deprivation and could be fertile ground for Reform could be a test of this. Whether former Brexit party leader Nigel Farage will decide to run for the Reform party is also hanging like the sword of Damocles over the party, with murmurs that he will make the focus of the election mass migration. Given the scrutiny the Conservatives have had over the Rwanda Bill and immigration is the number one concern among Tory voters, this could be disastrous for the party.
Looking from Europe to the States, Sunak’s decision to delay the election until the autumn means the US and UK campaigns will likely overlap in some way. If Trump is elected the Republican candidate there will be pressure on Sunak and Starmer to react to his likely inflammatory statements in the media, he will no doubt suck up media airtime for both candidates (this could perhaps be more of a problem for Labour given its centre-left position) and again this could embolden right-wing voters here.
In addition, if the election falls after the US elections in November and there is a Trump victory, this will no doubt be a focus, given his bearing on European security and threats to reduce commitments to NATO.
By Lucy Thompson, Senior Associate