Weekend Box: Davos ‘24, Donald Comes Up Trumps & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
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DAVOS ‘24: OUT TO CHANGE THE WORLD
As we draw closer to the end of January – can you believe it? – another Davos also comes to its final day. This year, excitingly, our Audley colleagues joined leaders of the political and business worlds in the Swiss Alps for the annual meeting. Below are some dispatches and highlights from ‘on the ground.’
Our team-mates have confirmed what the news headlines have already suggested, which is that AI is top of the agenda, along with climate change. However, the headlines belie what ‘really goes on’ at Davos, which are the target meetings between leaders taking place over 12-hour days, typically in the two or three hotels nearest the congress centre. These are where decisions are truly made and business is done.
Both UN secretary general António Guterres and OpenAI CEO Sam Altmann emphasised the importance of regulating the AI. While the secretary general took a grave view of Big Tech’s “reckless disregard for human rights, personal privacy, and social impact” by accelerating development in this way, Altmann spoke of AI’s power as a tool for increasing productivity and unlocking creativity.
Our colleagues also highlighted a speech by Queen Maxima of the Netherlands, on a theme that has been less prominent in headlines this week: financial inclusion. The queen and former economist highlighted the pressure that the rising cost of living internationally is putting on families, forcing many to reduce the number of meals they eat per day as they cannot afford to eat.
They have also informed us that, against a backdrop of global conflict and uncertainty, a truly collaborative ethos has dominated Davos this year. For all the doubt cast on the event and its relevance to the modern world, it is reassuring to know that its attendees are using it to try to find a way forward.
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DONALD COMES UP TRUMPS IN IOWA
On Wednesday morning, Donald Trump emerged as the clear victor in the Iowa Republican Caucus. A sense of inevitability seems to have set in about Mr Trump sewing up the GOP presidential nomination. With current polling suggesting he is narrowly ahead of Joe Biden in a match-up, there is a more than trivial chance of another Trump presidency.
Geopolitical analysts are spilling ink by the gallon on what four more years of ‘the Donald’ in the White House might mean for the USA and the rest of the world. His mercurial, quasi-isolationist approach to foreign policy should give European leaders pause for thought. The strategic question among EU and NATO countries will be, ‘can we really rely on a Trump-led America to guarantee our national security?’
In a speech this week, Defence Secretary Grant Schapps described the world as now being in a ‘pre-war’ state. In his view, the globe stands on the precipice of protracted conflict involving major powers, as opposed to the sustained peace enjoyed following the collapse of the USSR.
NATO remains crucial in preserving peace and America is by far its biggest funder. European nations have neglected their armed forces and Trump was vocally unhappy that the US have had to pick up the bill for defence on Europe’s behalf. At Davos, former Dutch President Mark Rutte conceded that Trump was “completely right” to criticise European leaders for not spending enough on defence.
If we judge a nation’s power on the combined strength of its economy and military, the situation for European countries facing up to a period of global conflict hardly looks promising. Tough political decision making and clear-eyed strategy will be needed to keep Europe’s enemies at bay.
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MIDDLE EAST: CONFLICTS AND INTERESTS
Last week, we examined the ability of the US’ ability to influence outcomes in Gaza and the wider Middle East through Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy. This week, another country has been making its presence felt in ways that suggest another concerted effort: Iran.
A surprise guest at Davos was Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who attended a side event commemorating the 75th Anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Some eyebrows will have been raised given Iran’s human rights record, but the minister was there to deliver a message: attacks against Israel and its interests by the "Axis of Resistance" (the ‘three Hs’ of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis) will stop if the Gaza war ends.
Yet this week Iran has also carried out its own strikes in the neighbouring regions of Kurdistan and Balochistan. In both cases, Iranian officials said they were going after terrorist groups behind recent attacks in Iran, but the attacks outraged Iraq and Pakistan, both of whom have strong diplomatic links with Iran. Pakistan hit back with its own strike in Iran.
Most analysts of Iran’s foreign policy think its primary goal, beyond its proxy war with Israel, is to drive the US out of the Middle East, yet these other attacks show an increased belligerence that threatens to fuel the wider conflict that Iran claims to want to avoid. The best explanation for this paradox may lie at home: Iran will hold elections on 1 March 2024 for its parliament and the Council of Experts, which is empowered to appoint the Supreme Religious Leader. These are the first since the protests of 2022, which the Iranian regime crushed brutally. Faced with the risks of exercising democracy, it might well suit Iran’s leadership to conduct restricted elections while on a war footing against its stated enemies.
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BOEING HITS PR TURBULENCE
2023 might have been one of aviation’s safest years yet, but only a few weeks into 2024 it appears this might have been the result of a bit of luck.
Boeing is in a reputational storm as it tries to explain why a door-size panel fell off Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 on January 5th. Thankfully no one died, but it is looking highly likely that this incident was preventable (the problem being loose bolts) and could have well happened on other flights. As discovered by federal investigations, several of the Boeing 737 Max 9 fleet had loose bolts.
This is not, however, about a couple of loose bolts, and this is not the first time Boeing has come under fire. Investigations of the fatal 2018 and 2019 Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia revealed a nonchalant culture at the company. CEO Dave Calhoun acknowledged then that people were “having a hard time being honest with one another.”
Some posit that this nonchalance has been replaced with greed, with Boeing focusing on profitability over safety, trying to ramp up production to 42 planes a month by February to make up for shortfalls at the time of the incident. While its CEO claims to have fixed Boeing’s culture problems, many will see this incident as evidence that the company has not changed at all.
There is some solace for frequent flyers. Amid accusations of corporate greed and poor decisions made at the top of an organisation, what does stand out is the professionalism of the Alaska Airlines crew. They responded rapidly to manage an emergency descent and prevented this from becoming a fatal tragedy. Despite there being a gaping hole in the plane, many passengers remarked that after the crew got a handle on the situation it felt like a normal descent. Pretty remarkable.
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TV REAPS REWARDS - AND AWARDS
This week saw the Emmy Awards show hit screens after it was postponed due to the writers’ strikes. Succession landed multiple wins, whilst another crowd favourite, The Bear, also had a home run, winning 6 awards. The adoration of Jennifer Coolidge continued, as she won best supporting actress for her turn in The White Lotus.
Elsewhere in the land of film and television this week, auction houses saw a star turn from the prop department, with production companies putting complete sets up for auction. Succession did well here again, garnering over £200,000 from selling off props including Greg’s dog mascot costume from Season 1 and the “ludicrously capacious” bag mocked by Tom Wambsgans in the final season, which went for £14,700. The appetite of fans for Succession memorabilia showed no limits, with the fake sausages used in the ‘Boar on the Floor’ game going for $5,250.
Succession isn’t the only series enjoying some extra income from auctioning props to fans. It came to light this week that none other than Boris Johnson bid £30,000 at the Bonhams auction for The Crown’s full-size replica of the No 10 door. Other notable lots from the auction (which will go live on February 7) include the world’s only copy of the Gold State Coach, which was used in the series and is estimated to go for a huge £50,000. Big business indeed!
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.