Weekend Box #104: Centre-Right Takes Centre Stage & more
Welcome to The Weekend Box, Audley’s weekly round-up of interesting or obscure political, business and cultural news from around the world.
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PORTUGAL: CENTRE-RIGHT TAKES CENTRE STAGE
Last weekend’s national elections in Portugal threw up a surprise result that has yet to be resolved with formation of a government. The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) were predicted to clinch a narrow win over the ruling Socialists. Narrow it certainly was, with AD winning 79 seats to the Socialist Party’s 77. Four seats are still up for grabs pending votes from ex-patriots, but this probably won’t resolve the matter of who gets to form a government.
Remarkably, resolution of the matter may lie with a new party, Chega (meaning ‘Enough’), an anti-establishment, far-right party only five years old that has broken through to win a remarkable 48 seats and 18% of the vote for the 230-seat parliament. Chega is led by André Ventura, a charismatic populist who has successfully channelled popular discontent with a two-party system accused of endemic corruption. There is some truth to this: elections were called after the previously ruling Socialist Party, who secured victory in January 2022, became embroiled in a scandal about government granted energy projects which led then-PM Antoni Costa to resign and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to call these elections.
DA leader Luis Montenegro has claimed that Portugal has voted for change but has also said that while he realises that it is DA’s responsibility to form a coalition, he refuses to form one with Chega, who campaigned on an ultra-conservative agenda including harsh anti-immigrant, anti-LGBT+, tough-justice rhetoric. Ventura is now pushing Montenegro on this, claiming the vote had resulted in "a clear majority in parliament for Chega and the conservatives together." If the DA relent, Chega can surely claim cabinet positions in the government. If they don’t, Chega have pledged to block the national budget that DA will need to table. A deal must be done.
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UNICEF FGM FIGURES SHOCK
In distressing new figures released this week, we learnt that the number of women and girls who have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM) in the past eight years has increased by 15%. The data, collected by UNICEF, shows that 230 million girls and women across the world have experienced FGM compared to 200 million in 2016.
While this is largely due to more girls being born in FGM-practicing countries across the world, and in general the practice is not becoming more common globally, there remain some concerning trends to take note of.
In some countries, such as Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone, communities are moving towards abandonment of the practice, but in others progress has stalled. The practice’s prevalence in Somalia and The Gambia has remained virtually stagnant over the past 30 years. This news comes in the same week that a bill aimed at lifting the ban on FGM was tabled in parliament in The Gambia, following a push by influential Muslim clerics.
Campaigners say the increasing medicalisation of the practice, where it is carried out by medical practitioners instead of traditional cutters, makes it harder to detect. In addition, as UNICEF executive director Catherine Russell told The Guardian, “We’re also seeing a worrying trend that more girls are subjected to the practice at younger ages, many before their fifth birthday. That further reduces the window to intervene.”
The report concludes that the rate of decline would need to be 27 times faster than it currently is if we are to meet the UN target of eliminating female genital mutilation by 2030.
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STANCHART-ING A NEW PATH
If your company’s share price is, by your own admission, “crap,” it’s probably time for strategic change.
Standard Chartered was thought to be planning a major overhaul a little while before its CEO, Bill Winters, bemoaned its stock performance. The rumour mill continued in February with whispers of a search for a ‘political heavyweight’ chair.
Now, a few weeks after Mr Winters’ headline-generating comment, the bank has undergone a leadership overhaul, signalling a desire to galvanize performance and boost investor returns.
One early high-profile casualty is Simon Cooper, head of StanChart’s investment bank. Further leadership losses are expected, with the bank stating it would remove regional heads, resulting in several other senior roles disappearing. The thinking, as explained by Bill Winters this week, is that by removing layers of management accountability will be clearer, in turn bringing a sharper focus on improving results.
Analysts and media focused on the dramatic removal of Simon Cooper, which was a genuine surprise given he was thought to be Bill Winters’ heir apparent. The move was interpreted as a clear sign of Mr Winters’ intent to stay put, despite his tenure now entering its 10th year – and the fact the bank’s shares are trading some 40% below where they were when he became CEO.
The stark truth for StanChart is that its strategic focus on Asian markets has not produced the desired growth or investor returns. The bank trails behind all major rivals in the region, especially HSBC. The patchy performance of the Chinese economy since COVID-19 has not helped matters.
The leadership shakeup will not be the sum total of the “drastic action” a Lex column called for – but it is a very public start.
EU GIG WORKERS’ BUMPY RIDE
After two years of negotiations, EU members have backed legislation to improve the rights of gig economy workers, such as delivery riders and drivers contracted to the likes of Uber.
The Platform Work Directive (PWD) was first presented in 2021 in an attempt to quell long-standing tensions between platforms and independent workers contracted to them, by introducing a blanket scheme to improve the working conditions across Europe. The directive would have readjusted the status of workers if they met certain criteria, including “being forbidden from servicing a competitor app,” entitling them to employment rights such as a minimum wage and health insurance.
Member states who were anxious about the effects on the gig economy and a more pro-worker European Parliament went back and forth on the directive, until a deal was reached in December last year. However, earlier this year, a coalition of countries including France, Ireland, and Greece undid the progress that had been made. These countries argued the directive had changed too much from a version agreed in June 2023, which would have enabled national authorities not to let workers’ statuses be re-adjusted (consequently denying them employment rights) in certain cases.
Reports suggested the laws had been scuppered. However, a compromise was reached earlier this week, wherein gig workers will have to prove to their national courts that platforms have “control and decision” over their activities to be classified as employees.
While Commissioner Nicolas Schmit has celebrated the new version of the directive for giving workers more rights “without hampering platforms’ ability to develop,” a spokesperson for Uber has criticised EU members for preventing blanket rules on worker protections from coming in.
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WOOD YOU BELIEVE IT?
In lighter news, the UK has now outgrown California as a home of giant redwood trees. Initially introduced to Britain around 160 years ago, these majestic giants of the arboreal world now outnumber their counterparts in their native California, with an estimated 500,000 trees across Britain compared to 80,000 across the pond.
While the UK redwoods haven't yet reached the dizzying heights of their Californian relatives, topping out at 54.87 meters compared to 90, they are catching up – and given their remarkable longevity of over 2,000 years, there's ample time for it.
Dr. Phil Wilkes, co-author of a recent study from Kew's botanic garden at Wakehurst in Sussex, emphasizes how remarkable it is that Britain has these giant trees, previously unnoticed until comprehensive studies were conducted. The UK's damp climate has proven conducive to their growth, with the trees adapting well to their new environment.
The researchers have used advanced laser scanning technology to measure the heights and volumes of thousands of trees across various locations in the UK. The findings suggest that the UK climate mirrors the cooler, moister conditions of their native Sierra Nevada mountains which contributes to their flourishing on the British Isles.
Moreover, these colossal redwoods play a vital role in sequestering carbon dioxide, contributing to climate change mitigation efforts. While UK specimens store less carbon compared to their Californian counterparts, their potential for growth suggests a role in carbon capture in a mixed forest plantation with other native and imported trees.
Despite their success in the UK, the redwoods are unlikely to dominate native forests due to their specific reproductive requirements. However, as saplings continue to be planted across the country, these giants promise to leave an enduring legacy, and may ascend to become the tallest trees in Britain.
And that’s it for this week. I hope you found something of interest that you might want to delve into further. If so, please get in touch at cwilkins@audleyadvisors.com.
For now, that’s The Weekend Box officially closed.